This year's NCAA men's basketball tournament could be without a March Madness mainstay.
The No. 23 Gonzaga men's basketball team is firmly on the bracket bubble going into an 11 p.m. ET game Thursday at San Francisco. Selection Sunday, an occasion this century where the program is typically a lock to hear its name called and receive an invitation to the big dance, is only a couple of weeks away. But this year is different for the 22-6 Zags.
Gonzaga's streak of 24 consecutive NCAA tournament bids (not counting the canceled 2020 event) is on the line as the regular season winds down. That's the third-longest active streak in the nation, trailing only Kansas (33) and Michigan State (25). No other Division I men's program, according to Yahoo Sports, even has a current run of more than eight appearances in a row. Even blue-bloods like Kentucky and Duke have missed March Madness lately. Will the Zags be next?
"Everything's still in front of us for what we want to accomplish this season," head coach Mark Few, who has led the program to all 23 NCAA tournaments played since taking over before the 1999-2000 season, said earlier this month, via USA Today. "You're still playing for something."
More specifically, the Bulldogs are playing to prevent missing the tournament for the first time since 1998. As for the current likelihood of that happening? Here's a breakdown.
NCAA Tournament Bracketology, Gonzaga Edition
Gonzaga, once considered a bracket-busting Cinderella squad, has lately been a fixture in the champion discussion instead. The Zags have posted 25 NCAA tournament wins since 2015, per 247Sports—four more than any other team in that span (though curiously they don't have a title win to show for it). Few has coached the Bulldogs to two national championship appearances and carries an eight-tournament streak of Sweet 16 trips into March.
But that's the least of Gonzaga's concerns right now.
Falling short of an invite altogether is still in play, according to a variety of bracketology gurus. ESPN's Joe Lundardi, in an updated bracket projection released Thursday, lists Gonzaga as the second-to-last team in the tournament field. Lunardi said that the Zags would likely stay in the picture even with a loss to San Francisco, though "just barely."
USA Today and CBS Sports also both list Gonzaga among the "last four in." In NCAA analyst Andy Katz's final men's basketball bracket predictions before March, he listed Gonzaga more securely in the at-large mix as the fourth team on the 10-seed line.
Gonzaga's NCAA Tournament Resume
To go along with a No. 23 spot in the Associated Press' latest poll (not that that means a whole lot for the selection committee), Gonzaga is ranked 21st in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings as of Thursday (which means a great deal). The metric was introduced prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary tool for evaluating teams, which it does on a variety of factors—including game results, strength of schedule, game location, efficiency and quality of wins and losses.
And Gonzaga's current placement is a favorable March Madness sign.
Since the NET was instituted, no team ranked in the metric's top 25 by Selection Sunday has been left out of the NCAA Tournament, per Sports Illustrated. Still, that position could tank should Gonzaga lose either of its two remaining regular-season games. But for now, the Bulldogs will take it.
The Zags are also ranked at No. 19 (ESPN's Basketball Power Index), 65th (KPI), 20th (BartTorvik) and 20th again (KenPom) in some of the other analytical tools that may serve as a point of reference when building the bracket. And at KenPom, potentially the go-to site for basketball fanatics, the Zags have the 10th-rated adjusted offense in the country (and the 59th-best defense).
Some of the causes for concern when it comes to Gonzaga's resume likely stem from a 1-5 record in Quad 1 games, plus a strength of schedule that is all the way down at 117th in the country, per Basketball Reference.
A road win in mid-February over Kentucky might have marked a turning point for Gonzaga, now on a six-game winning streak, and could serve as the team's signature victory. The program's other three occasions beating Power Five teams this season, though, came against opponents (Syracuse, UCLA and USC) that don't crack the NET's top 80. Both of Gonzaga's remaining regular-season games—on the road against San Francisco (NET 54) and then at No. 17 St. Mary's (NET 15, winners of 15 straight) on Sunday—serve as Quad 1 opportunities to boost its stock and fight back against what may be its largest criticism. The Zags theoretically need at least one win to keep their dancing hopes alive, and two (perhaps accompanied by some other bubble teams losing) could push them to a safer position in the bracketology mix.
But if neither of those things happens? Well, goodbye March. Probably. At the very least, Gonzaga enters must-win territory next week. Even if the Zags can't lock up an at-large bid this weekend, there's still the West Coast Conference Tournament—which begins March 7. Gonzaga has won that event in 10 of its last 11 tries, and doing so again would automatically qualify the team for March Madness and take the drama out of what could otherwise be a nerve-wracking Selection Sunday.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Robert Read is a Sports Reporter at Newsweek based in Florida. He previously spent four years working at The Daily ... Read more
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
