Republican efforts at beating former President Donald Trump in the 2024 GOP presidential primary may be futile, according to two historical trends.
Last November, Trump announced that he is running for president, setting up a possible rematch of the 2020 election, in which he lost to President Joe Biden. But unlike 2020, he is set to face a number of high-profile Republicans, some of whom—including former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley and Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson—have already announced their campaigns in hopes of building an anti-Trump coalition to prevail in the primary.
However, the former president remains deeply popular among conservative voters. Polls show him retaining high favorability with these voters, despite concerns that Trump may be toxic to swing voters. Some Republicans turned on Trump after the GOP's underwhelming 2022 midterm elections when Trump-endorsed candidates faltered in key swing races. Furthermore, the GOP base has appeared to rally around Trump amid his recent legal troubles, including his indictment in New York City earlier this month.
Two historic trends show that any potential challengers are likely to face an uphill battle in defeating the former president.
Polling
Trump has consistently been in the lead in most of the polls of the 2024 primary, with most of his opponents typically polling in the single-digits. Polls show his top potential opponent being Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose embrace of right-wing culture war issues has earned him support from some conservative voters.
But even DeSantis, who has not formally announced a presidential campaign, has trailed Trump in most polls.
The most recent polling of the Republican primary shows Trump winning more than 50 percent of the vote. The Harvard/Harris poll, conducted from April 18 to 19, found that 55 percent of GOP voters would support Trump. Meanwhile, 20 percent said they would back DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence received support from 7 percent of voters, while Haley earned the backing of 4 percent.
In an aggregate of polling by FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads the field with an average of 50.7 percent, while DeSantis averages support from 24.9 percent. Other candidates have polling averages in the single digits.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment via email.
Meena Bose, the executive dean of Hofstra University's Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, Public Policy and International Affairs, told Newsweek on Saturday that it is unsurprising that Trump would have an early lead because he has high visibility and name recognition among the GOP base. However, she said it remains early, noting that the first debates remain months away.
She said potential and declared candidates could use Trump's recent indictment in Manhattan to chip away from his support, though they have so far stopped short of criticizing him. Trump had pleaded not guilty to 34 counts of falsifying business records that stemmed from an alleged hush money payment made during his 2016 campaign in relation to an alleged affair with adult film actor Stormy Daniels, which Trump has denied.
"Republican political leaders might decide that he brings more complications and negatives for the GOP election campaign," Bose said.
Bose added that early polling "doesn't necessarily indicate where the party will ultimately end up," and said it's unclear whether Republicans view Trump's "divisive" rhetoric as the message they want to convey during the general election, when the eventual nominee is expected to face a close race against a Democrat, potentially President Joe Biden.
Endorsements
Meanwhile, Trump is also leading in a second metric that indicates success in a presidential primary: endorsements.
As of April 21, about 60 Republicans serving in either the U.S. House of Representatives or Senate have announced they are supporting his 2024 presidential campaign, including some of the most prominent conservative voices including Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.
Trump has also boasted about receiving endorsements from nearly a dozen Florida representatives, who chose the former president over DeSantis, who could receive more endorsements if he formally makes a campaign official. The primary elections have barely begun, leaving plenty of time for other elected officials to make their endorsements.
According to FiveThirtyEight, endorsements have been a critical indicator of which candidate would receive the most support from voters ahead of the primary elections, which have historically kicked off in Iowa.
One notable exception to this was Trump himself, who trailed former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in endorsements during the 2016 election. At the time, Trump faced more backlash from mainstream Republicans, many of whom have come around to supporting him during his administration.
Still, some have argued Trump should not be the 2024 nominee, pointing to his weaknesses among swing voters, who typically decide which candidate will prevail in close races. However, these two indicators suggest their efforts to replace him at the top of the ticket may falter.
Update 4/22/2023, 3:27 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Meena Bose.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
