GOP War on Food Stamps Could Spectacularly Backfire

Newly elected House Speaker Mike Johnson is likely to join Republican hardliners in supporting cuts to the country's largest anti-hunger program, a decision that could hurt GOP rural candidates in 2024 elections, according to analysts.

The Farm Bill, a package of legislation which is traditionally renewed every five years with bipartisan support, expired on September 30 and it's still in the process of being rewritten by the House and the Senate. It's widely expected to be renewed by the end of the year.

But while the passing of a new Farm Bill is normally delayed by negotiations over spending, especially around its nutrition programs, this year the issue appears set to trigger another meltdown in Congress if Republican hardliners push for major cuts.

This year's bill is expected to cost more than $1.5 trillion over 10 years. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP—one of the country's largest welfare programs serving 41 million low-income Americans—makes up more than 80 percent of spending in the bill.

According to data from the Pew Research Center, 41.2 million people in 21.6 million households received monthly SNAP benefits in the 2022 fiscal year, which ran from October 2021 through September 2022.

Johnson has been supportive of efforts to block the expansion of SNAP. In 2018, he called the program "our nation's most broken and bloated welfare program."

It's not only Johnson who wishes to cut back on SNAP benefits. Several hardline Republicans are pushing to roll back the program in the next Farm Bill. One of them, Representative Andrew Clyde of Georgia, a Freedom Caucus member, once described SNAP as "one of the largest government handout programs" needing "to be curtailed."

But the move could be risky for many Republicans seeking reelection next year, especially those in rural and farm areas, where a majority of SNAP beneficiaries are.

Republican Representative Dusty Johnson of South Dakota has urged fellow lawmakers to pass an extension on the 2018 Farm Bill in the coming weeks, saying that "failure to do that would hurt farm country and reflect poorly on Congress."

SNAP is popular among Americans. According to a poll from the Save the Children Action Network and shared with The Hill in July, 85 percent of Americans supported even higher food aid for struggling families. Only 4 percent of respondents wanted to decrease them.

While support for SNAP was stronger among Democrats, more than 50 percent of Republicans responding to the poll thought SNAP benefits were too low, showing that GOP voters do care and believe in the positive impact of the program.

"Costly federal programs exist because they have popular support. SNAP is important for millions, as are most major federal programs. That's why they exist," Michael Zona, a political strategist at Bullpen Strategy Group (BSG), told Newsweek. "But politicians—and, by extension, voters—have to make a choice, and the clock is ticking.

"The annual deficit is unsustainable at current interest rates, and if nothing changes, major cuts are coming down the road whether people like it or not. Once you start saying this or that program is off the table for cuts, you're left with very few consensus options to reduce federal spending."

But there are "political risks in being fiscally responsible—that's why so few in Congress are," he added.

That leads Zona to believe that Republicans are unlikely to cut on SNAP, despite hardliners' support, especially as Democrats would likely not back them up.

"At the end of day, spending cuts need to be bipartisan to last," Zona said. "Right now, it doesn't seem there is much bipartisan interest in reducing spending."

Thomas Gift, the founding director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, is less certain.

"In normal political times, the effort to cut SNAP benefits—on which many conservative voters, particularly in rural, hollowed-out parts of America, rely—would be an unmitigated drag on the GOP heading into 2024," he told Newsweek. "But we're not in normal political times.

"Cultural issues have become so pronounced that they're now dwarfing these kinds of bread-and-butter policy issues, SNAP just being one example. Democrats can explain until they're blue in the face that their policies are better for low-income and working-class Americans. But many still aren't going to vote Democrat if they think that the party doesn't share their values."

In response to a request for comment by Newsweek, the USDA pointed to Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack's statement last week talking about the "need to deliver on the Biden-Harris Administration National Strategy on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health."

According to the USDA, a recent report, which found that 17 million households in the U.S. were food insecure at some point during 2022, is "a stark reminder" for Congress to "fully fund" WIC and "continue the 25-year track record of bipartisan consensus to make sure every eligible low-income mom, infant, and child can get the vital, developmentally appropriate nutrition they need to thrive."

"We also need a Farm Bill that protects SNAP benefits—because they work to help lift people out of poverty—and for all states to embrace the Summer EBT program to help kids access healthy food during the summer months, when school is out and child food insecurity is highest," Vilsack said.

Newsweek reached out to Mike Johnson's offices in Washington and Bossier City via phone on Monday for comment.