Governors in Danger of Losing Their Jobs With Two Weeks to Midterms

Nearly 30 governors across the country are fighting to stay in office this year, and in two weeks, a couple of them could lose their jobs, polling suggests.

Democrat incumbents running for reelection in three states are in "toss-up" races where their Republican opponents could take the governorship, according to the Cook Political Report. That outcome is most likely in Nevada—the only state where the incumbent candidate is poised to lose the midterm election.

In Nevada, Republican Joe Lombardo is forecasted to have a 51 in 100 chance of defeating Governor Steve Sisolak, who is the first Democrat to serve as the state's governor since 1999. The current FiveThirtyEight projection is particularly troubling for Sisolak, who had been ahead of Lombardo throughout the election cycle up until this week and who had a 67 in 100 chance of beating the Republican just a month ago.

Republicans in Wisconsin and Kansas have also mounted a real challenge against their Democratic rivals.

In Wisconsin, Governor Tony Evers has a slight advantage over Republican Tim Michels, with a 54 in 100 chance of keeping the governorship. In August, Evers had an 80 in 100 chance of winning, but Michels has been able to quickly close the gap on the Democrat.

Kansas Governor Laura Kelly has a 60 in 100 chance of keeping her seat against Republican Derek Schmidt. While her odds of winning are lower than other incumbents, it's still likely she could hold on to her job since Schmidt had the advantage up until August. However, the Democratic governor did have a better chance of defeating Schmidt a month ago when she held a 70 in 100 chance of victory.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is also facing tougher reelection than some of her fellow Democrats. As of Monday, she has an 87 in 100 chance of defeating Republican opponent Tudor Dixon.

Whitmer and Dixon are returning to the stage for their second and final debate on Tuesday night at Oakland University in Rochester.

Although New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, Maine Governor Janet Mills and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz have more than an 89 in 100 chance of getting re-elected, their poll numbers are also some of the lower ones in a governor's race this year.

Democratic candidates in a number of key swing states have also been unable to present the challenge they hoped to against Republican incumbent governors.

While the bids of Beto O'Rourke in Texas and Stacey Abrams in Georgia drummed up significant enthusiasm at the beginning of the election cycle, neither is poised to oust Republican Governors Greg Abbott of Texas and Brian Kemp of Georgia.

Abbott has a 97 in 100 chance of winning re-election, while Kemp has a 90 in 100 chance of keeping the governorship. Kemp is the only Republican incumbent whose chances of winning are lower than 91 in 100.

However, there is good news for three Democratic incumbents who have a more than 99 in 100 chance of being re-elected as governor in Colorado, Illinois and California.