Hawaii is at risk for a direct strike from Hurricane Lane, according to the latest forecast updates on Tuesday.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center reports that Hurricane Lane is "expected to make a turn toward the Hawaiian Islands later this week," and that the storm currently has maximum sustained winds of 140 miles per hour, making it a category 4.
The latest forecast is for Hurricane Lane to approach Hawaii from Thursday to Saturday of this week, as either a small hurricane or tropical storm, with potential direct impacts to popular tourist cities including Honolulu.
The forecast uncertainty at this point is a question of whether Hawaii gets a hard brush from Hurricane Lane's path, or parts of the Hawaii Islands get a direct hit from a tropical storm or hurricane. Both are distinct possibilities in the latest forecast update, with increasing likelihood that hurricane conditions will be near or at Hawaii.
The best news at this point is that if Hurricane Lane does take a direct path to Hawaii in its turn to the north, the storm is not expected to approach at current category 4 strength -- weakening will likely occur.
"Warm waters and a somewhat favorable wind shear environment should allow Lane to remain a Category 3 or 4 hurricane with winds of at least 115 mph through Wednesday," the Weather Channel reports.
"Lane will not be that strong when it makes its closest approach to Hawaii Thursday-Saturday. Increasing wind shear should cause Lane to be on a weakening trend, but it could still pose a significant threat as a hurricane or strong tropical storm."
A hurricane watch could be put into effect for parts of the Hawaiian Islands today, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said.
The challenge in forecasting Hurricane Lane's Hawaii risk is that there "are few analogs for a northward-bending hurricane affecting the Hawaiian islands, but the ones we do have are worrisome," according to Weather Underground.
"Few Central Pacific hurricanes take such a hard right turn, and model guidance for the region was very limited at the time."
Early Tuesday Hurricane Lane was 600 miles southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii, moving on a path to the west. The problem for Hawaii is that Lane is currently steered by subtropical high pressure in place to the north and that's likely to change, putting Hawaii at risk as Hurricane Lane's forecast track shifts north.
"If Lane moves along the southern portion (left side) of its forecast projected path, it would be far enough south of the islands to cause peripheral impacts: increased rainfall, windy conditions, high surf and rip currents," the Weather Channel reports. "A sharper northwest or even north path along the northern or eastern side (right side) of its forecast projected path would increase the possibility of significant direct impacts in the Hawaiian Islands."
Hurricane Hector gave Hawaii a brush last week, passing 120 miles south of the Big Island. Hurricane Lane's current positioning, further south of Hurricane Hector, could be confusing as a threat to Hawaii, reports Weather Undeground's Bob Henson, but conditions are different this time.
"The difference this time is that steering currents will be weakening as Lane approaches Hawaii, so the hurricane is expected to begin arcing sharply northwestward by Wednesday," Henson said. "This will give it a better chance than Hector of affecting the islands directly. The big questions are how soon the turn will happen, how sharp it will be, and how strong Lane will be if and when it reaches Hawaii."
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