Homeowners Get Good News Over Mortgage Rates

While mortgage rates remain higher than they were during the housing market's booming pandemic years, Moody's Ratings has predicted them to finally start declining over the next few years in a new report.

Exactly a week ago, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, better known as Freddie Mac, reported that the average rate for a 30-year-fixed mortgage—the most popular among U.S. borrowers—had reached 7.1 percent, a record high for this year so far.

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Moody's Ratings' experts believe mortgage rates will come down—just not as quickly as homebuyers might wish for. The financial research company is currently estimating that mortgage rates will remain higher "than the extremely low levels during the decade of aggressive central bank stimulus that preceded the past two years" in the coming months, but will likely reach around 6 percent or somewhat less by the end of 2025.

This is good news for aspiring homebuyers who have been squeezed out of the market by skyrocketing home prices and high mortgage rates, which climbed as a direct consequence of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hiking campaign to combat the rise of inflation last year.

While most analysts expect the central bank to lower interest rates this year, the Federal Reserve has so far failed to do so, as the latest data on the cost of living show that inflation remains higher than expected at 3.48 percent in March. The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates, but any rise in interest rates impacts new mortgage lending.

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Higher mortgage rates led to a drop in demand in late summer 2022 due to the unaffordability of buying a home for many Americans; but the price correction that followed this slide in demand was rather modest. In spring 2023, prices started climbing back up across the country, as the supply of homes remained low.

While the historic shortage of homes in the U.S. can primarily be traced back to the fact that the country has under-built following the bursting of the housing bubble and the financial crisis of 2007-2008, high mortgage rates have also caused many homeowners to hold on to their homes instead of putting them on the market.

"Many U.S. homeowners have low fixed-rate mortgages that they are reticent to give up, which is constraining existing property listings and sales," Moody's wrote in the report.

Faced with a growing demand for new constructions and mortgage interest rate buydowns, the company's experts expect home prices to avoid significant decline in the coming months, sliding by a moderate 5 percent this year after falling 6.6 percent in 2023.