How Lake Mead Water Levels Will Change After Atmospheric River

As a moisture-laden atmospheric river makes its way through California and into inland Western states, meteorologists expect the storm could bring up to an inch of rain to drought-stricken Lake Mead in Nevada.

Urgent weather warnings have been issued across California since the atmospheric river made landfall on Sunday, when it brought torrential rains that threatened floods and mudslides across the Golden State. On Monday, the storm continued its eastward trek into Las Vegas. A National Weather Service (NWS) radar showed that some of the rain from the storm was expected to fall near Lake Mead.

Atmospheric rivers are defined as a "long, narrow region in the atmosphere—like rivers in the sky—that transport most of the water vapor outside of the tropics," according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. More than a dozen atmospheric rivers battered California last year, largely eliminating drought but creating severe problems such as flooding and mudslides.

How Lake Mead Water Levels Will Change
Water lines are visible along the banks of Lake Mead on May 12, 2015. An incoming storm is expected to bring up to an inch of rain to the lake area near Las Vegas. Getty

NWS meteorologist Clay Morgan told Newsweek that Las Vegas was expecting to get up to an additional inch of rain across the valley over the next few days. Approximately .2 inches of rain already fell over the weekend. Average February monthly rainfall in Las Vegas is .8 inches.

Some of that rain is expected to fall near Lake Mead, but Morgan said the impact on the lake's water levels won't be very significant.

After reaching drastically low water levels in the summer of 2022, Lake Mead has started to recover following an abnormally wet winter last year. However, the lake is still more than 155 feet below full pool. And although the storm is good news for Lake Mead, Morgan said that snowmelt from mountains upstream makes a bigger impact than rain.

"It's pretty insignificant to melting snow from the wintertime," he said.

The atmospheric river is expected to bring several feet of snow to mountains upstream of Lake Mead, but Morgan said the snow is nothing compared with early 2023 levels.

"What we saw last winter was very different than what we're seeing this go-around," he said. "There were many, many more atmospheric rivers coming one after another after another, and they dumped tremendous amounts of snow."

Speaking of the snowfall from this storm, he said: "It's not zero, but it's not something that's going to refill the lake."

As of Monday, Lake Mead water levels were at 1,073.49 feet, more than 26 feet higher than this time last year. The lake surpassed 2022 levels last May and blew past 2021 levels in December.

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Anna Skinner is a Newsweek senior reporter based in Indianapolis. Her focus is reporting on the climate, environment and weather ... Read more

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