How a Union Battle Could Decide Who Wins the U.S. Senate

Organized labor plays less of a role in shaping national elections than it once did, yet unions in Ohio could prove pivotal in determining which party holds the Senate in 2024.

How that plays out, however, will depend on whether increasingly pro-Trump union members listen to leaders who are loyal to Democrats and President Joe Biden.

With the upper chamber close to evenly divided, the race in the Buckeye State is shaping up as one of the closest contests in the country as it pits incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown against wealthy businessman Bernie Moreno, looking to unseat him on the platform of former President Donald Trump's "America First" agenda.

Although Brown and Biden have long been seen as union men, working-class Americans have increasingly been turning to Trump and that has seen the Republican Party soften its stance against organized labor.

"The labor leadership in Ohio has always been strongly Democratic," Paul Beck, a professor emeritus of political science at The Ohio State University, told Newsweek. "The rank and file, on the other hand, have begun deserting the Democrats."

Ohio's Republican Senator J.D. Vance joined United Auto Workers at the picket line in a well-publicized appearance last October. A New York Times/Siena College poll released the following month found that in six critical swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—Biden and Trump were tied at 47 percent in support among union members.

Brown leads Moreno 39 percent to 34 percent, per a March 13 poll by Emerson College Polling; however, recent political trends in the state leave the incumbent vulnerable.

Once considered a national bellwether, Ohio had voted for the eventual presidential victor each cycle since 1964. That changed when Trump carried the state in 2020, and the MAGA trend was further solidified in 2022 when Vance—who some considered a weak candidate at the time—won by over 6 points.

Ohio ranks 16 among states with the largest percentage of union-represented employees at 13.6 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Alaska, which ranks 8, with 15.2 percent of its workforce belonging to a union, is the only red state ahead of it. Nationally, 10 percent of workers are represented by unions.

Union networks

Tim Burga, president of the Ohio branch of the AFL-CIO—America's largest federation of unions—told Newsweek that once organized labor mobilizes around a candidate, unions can tap into their extensive networks and existing infrastructure, to spread political messages.

Through worksite outreach campaigns, door-to-door volunteers, and manpower to deploy traditional campaign mailers, unions can play a pivotal part in turning out voters. With Brown's robust labor record, Burga expects him to garner support across the board, saying, "I couldn't even quantify. It's really strong."

"I talk to workers all the time," Brown told Newsweek. "I win workers' votes because I get support from unions. I win workers' votes because I talk about the dignity of work. I met with a bunch of Teamsters this week. I met with a bunch of pipe fitters about infrastructure projects, about the pensions we saved. I'm glad to have endorsements, but I also know I talk directly to workers and win their votes perhaps better than anybody in the Senate."

Brown helped pass the Butch Lewis Act through the American Rescue Plan of 2021 which provided funding for financially troubled multiemployer pension plans. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 included the Build America Buy America Act, a bipartisan bill he helped draw up. He has also claimed an Intel investment in Ohio as a victory for his part in shaping the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022.

But Brown has also distanced himself from his party on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which Trump condemned and whose opponents say it cost tens of thousands of jobs in Ohio. Beck, of The Ohio State University, said NAFTA was a key reason why Democrats have lost the support of rank-and-file union members.

In increasingly red Ohio, Republicans believe Brown's appeal has dimmed, particularly in a year where Biden sits atop the ticket.

New emissions standards aimed at increasing sales of electric cars and introduced recently under Biden's "clean energy" plans have raised concerns in auto manufacturing states, with Ohio trailing only Michigan and Indiana when it comes to making cars.

"As Senator for Ohio, I will always put our workers and families first," Moreno told Newsweek in a statement. "For decades, Democrats have abandoned America's working class in favor of left-wing pet projects, including environmental extremism and open-border policies that harm our workers. I will always champion energy policies that put our nation on a path to energy independence that create good-paying union jobs.

"Meanwhile, Sherrod Brown stands firmly with left-wing environmentalists that support progressive gimmicks that will bankrupt America's energy sector, like the Green New Deal," he added. "Democrats like Brown have abandoned workers in support of unfettered immigration, which only harms the working class by driving down wages. I will always stand with Republicans like President Trump and Senator J.D. Vance in opposing bad trade deals that ship American jobs overseas."

Matt Taglia, senior director of Emerson College Polling, said that undecided voters will play an outsized role in the Ohio Senate race, unlike the presidential where a greater number of Ohioans have their minds made up.

Brown holds a steadier base of support than Biden among voters with an educational level of an associate degree and higher, Taglia said. Just as critical though, whereas in January Biden was polling around 28 to 29 percent support from voters with just vocational training or a high school diploma and less, Brown took 30 to 32 percent support.

Those margins are slim, so Taglia said undecided support could make a real difference as a significant portion of the electorate remains open-minded. Taglia said this segment of voters generally comprise the blue-collar base that Republicans rely on. While he said a majority likely don't belong to unions, some do. And some of those who do not belong to unions may seek union guidance when deciding who best represents their interests.

"With such a high undecided factor, a lot of them are going to take their cues from some of these organizations that decide to endorse, decide to get involved in the race," Taglia told Newsweek. "The labor endorsements are definitely going to matter."