How the SAG Awards Will Predict the Oscar Winners

If there's one awards show that will most accurately predict who will win at the Academy Awards, it's the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Over the show's history, the SAG Awards have predicted the acting Oscar winners over 70 percent of the time. That's a pretty great track record. With the show streaming live on Netflix this Saturday, February 24, let's take a look at the current state of the Oscar race and what role the SAG Awards will play in finalizing our predictions for key categories—particularly Best Actor and Actress, which have turned into an nail-biting race. But more on that later.

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Let's start things off with the least exciting two categories: Best Supporting Actor and Actress. You see, the two likely winners are just so expected, it would be more of a surprise if they didn't win.

Best Supporting Actor

If you remember, it was when the SAG Award nominations were announced, they gave us a glimpse into the evolving awards season. At that point it looked like Barbie and May December might pick up a lot of love, but then the SAG nominees were announced, and people were like, 'Wait, what?' And it was the Best Supporting Actor category that gave us the biggest glimpse into this. First off, Sterling K. Brown made the cut for American Fiction, despite many believing Charles Melton's performance in May December might overtake his position. In fact, Melton wasn't even nominated. And the love for Poor Things became clear with Willem Defoe's nomination. Ultimately the Oscar nominees mirrored the SAG nominees, with just Dafoe's nomination swapping with Mark Ruffalo from Poor Things at the Oscars.

But in the end, the very clear winner is going to be Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer. He's been winning everything, and at this point there's no stopping him.

Here are the Best Supporting Actor SAG nominees...

Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

Willam Dafoe, Poor Things

Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Best Supporting Actress

This is the one race that is absolutely, 100 percent guaranteed. Da'Vine Joy Randolph will win for The Holdovers. There hasn't been one award she hasn't won, and honestly it's so, so well-deserved.

What's interesting about the SAG nominees for Best Supporting Actress is that America Ferrera isn't in the mix, despite picking up an Oscar nomination for Barbie. Ultimately, all nominees from SAG were nominated for the Oscar except Penelope Cruz for Ferrari.

Here are the Best Supporting Actress SAG nominees...

Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

Jodie Foster, Nyad

Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Best Actor

This is the category to watch at the SAG Awards. Why? Because it's a crazy tight race between Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer and Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers. My gut is telling me Giamatti will win this one, only because The Holdovers is such an actor's type film, whereas Oppenheimer benefited from director Christopher Nolan's technical brilliance.

Here are the Best Actor SAG nominees...

Bradley Cooper, Maestro

Colman Domingo, Rustin

Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Best Actress

Now this is the race to end all races. Because this is the one category where the SAG winner might not win the Oscar. Why's that? Because the person who might win the Oscar isn't even nominated for a SAG Award. Compelling plot twist, right?

You see, currently it's a battle between Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things. Early on it seemed like it was Gladstone's to lose, but lately Stone has been gaining momentum. Both are nominated for the SAG Award. I feel like Stone is going to win at SAG, but that's just a gut feeling.

Now, stick with me on this one, because it's about to get weird. So Sandra Huller wasn't nominated at SAG for Anatomy of a Fall, but the film was a surprise darling at the Oscars, picking up five nominations. There is a scenario in which Stone and Gladstone cancel each other out, making room for Huller to sneak in there and win the Oscar. Crazier things have happened. (My favorite moment in Oscar history was when this very thing happened. In 1950, when Bette Davis was up for All About Eve and Gloria Swanson was up for Sunset Blvd., but somehow Judy Holliday for Born Yesterday snuck in there and picked up the Best Actress Oscar. Some have even speculated the same thing happened when Olivia Colman won for The Favourite in 2018, beating out the favorites to win, Glenn Close for The Wife and Lady Gaga for A Star is Born.)

Another crazy thing that could happen Saturday is people could vote for Margot Robbie for Barbie because of her being snubbed at the Oscars. That would be crazy but super exciting.

So yeah, this is one category I'll be watching Saturday night. Here are the SAG nominees for Best Actress...

Annette Bening, Nyad

Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Margot Robbie, Barbie

Emma Stone, Poor Things

Who do you think is going to win? Let me know, I'm HAlanScott on everything. And make sure you're subscribed to my newsletter For the Culture and the Parting Shot podcast.