Iceland Volcano Update: Magma Nearing Eruption Levels Again

The volcano in Iceland that has wreaked havoc across the Reykjanes Peninsula in recent months may be about to erupt again.

This would mark the fourth eruption in only three months, following previous eruptions on December 18, January 14 and February 8.

The level of magma lurking beneath the ground is approaching the same level as it was just before the previous eruptions, meaning that another eruption could be imminent, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Office.

"Model calculations show that around 7.6 million cubic meters of magma have now accumulated under Svartsengi. If you look at the eve of previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúks crater series, the probability of an eruption increases when the volume has reached 8 – 13 million cubic meters. If magma accumulation continues in the same way, the lower limit will be reached tomorrow," the IMO said in a translated statement on Monday.

There could be very little warning that the volcano is about to erupt, with geologists receiving as little as 30 minutes warning from seismic signals.

"Signs that magma is making its way to the surface would appear in sudden, localized and intense micro-seismic activity," the IMO said. "A new eruption could start with very little notice, less than 30 minutes."

This prediction comes as the IMO described how earthquake activity has increased over the weekend. The highest activity could be seen underneath the magma dike. The level of seismic activity was also around the same level as is usually seen just before an eruption.

According to the IMO, "An eruption is most likely to occur in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell."

Stóra-Skógfell is near the sites of the December and February eruptions, while Hagafell is much closer to Grindavik, a small fishing town that has been plagued by the eruptions. If the eruption occurs closer to Hagafell, the eruption may be similar to that of the January 14 incident, when the lava flow approached Grindavik and burned down several houses despite the construction of barriers and attempts to reroute the lava.

"Lava reaches the defenses at Grindavík in 1 hour," the IMO said of the potential for an eruption nearer to Hagafell. "A magma intrusion extending south of Hagafell will probably cause significant fissure movements in Grindavík."

Eruptions closer to Grindavik will likely be detectable sooner, however.

Grindavik's population of 4,000 were evacuated just before the January 14 eruption, and have not yet been allowed to return to their homes.

"It is challenging to prevent damage from lava flows due to their immense heat and mass. However, efforts can be made in urban planning to avoid high-risk areas, and in emergency preparedness to evacuate and protect populations at risk. Building ramps or berms (as in Grindavik) can work," David Kitchen, an associate professor of geology at the University of Richmond, told Newsweek.

"I believe there are some examples of communities using water to cool the magma quickly as a means of diverting, small lava flows," he said.

An eruption further away from Grindavik would still cause widespread destruction, as seen after the February 8 eruption, when a lava flow crawled across a main road near the famous Blue Lagoon and caused over 20,000 households to lose hot water across the region.

Do you have a tip on a science story that Newsweek should be covering? Do you have a question about the Iceland volcano? Let us know via science@newsweek.com.