The 2024 presidential election is just under a year out and it looks almost certain that, despite the fact that the supermajority of voters in both parties do not want it, we will be getting a rematch of the 2020 election. Poll after poll indicate this will be a very tight race, one where former President Donald Trump is often favored to win a second, nonconsecutive, term. So too are political pundits routinely calling President Joe Biden a weak incumbent, in danger of losing to his once and future foe. I would however take a contrarian view of the state of the race, issuing a call to ignore the polls and the pundits because Biden is cruising to reelection.
The evidence suggesting Biden is in trouble rests almost entirely on polls. Granted, the polls are painting a clear picture that this race will be close. However, research has made equally clear that polling a year out from a presidential election is notoriously unreliable. At this point in past election cycles, polls frequently saw the likes of Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama as either being in tight races or outright underdogs for reelection, yet all these men went on to secure second terms.
A chief reason for polls not being especially reliable a year out from an election is that they are nothing more than snapshots of the present. They are not crystal balls showing the future. The fact is that most Americans, more than 3 in 4, aren't paying much or any attention to politics right now. That will change as the presidential election nears, but not until we get into its home stretch. For now, presidential match-up polls are little more a reflection of a general dissatisfaction with the status quo. Once we get much closer to the election, the underlying calculus changes and the polls will become a much more accurate reflection of the actual choice voters intend to make in November.
We also cannot forget that incumbency is still a strength, one enjoyed by Biden but not by Trump. Most incumbents win when they seek a second term, all else equal. That is especially true when economic conditions are fair to good, which by all metrics is currently the case. After all, the economy is roaring ahead with phenomenal growth rates, the war on inflation is all but over, and it happened while maintaining historically low levels of unemployment. The fundamentals of election prediction, most of which are tied to economic indicators such as these, are all pointing to a comfortable Biden victory in 2024.
Democrats, meanwhile, have continued to over-perform expectations in election after election ever since Trump took office in 2016. That has been particularly true since the Dobbs decision was issued by the Supreme Court, turning Republicans into the dog that caught the car. Abortion will no doubt continue act as an anchor to the GOP's electoral prospects, especially when the presidential nominee Republicans put up is directly responsible for nominating the very Supreme Court justices that gutted abortion rights in America.
Speaking of electoral anchors, Trump himself has chronically underperformed compared to what we would expect from a generic Republican in both of his prior elections. Moreover, the man has been electoral poison to Republicans in general elections since leaving office. The Trump brand, such as it is, is just not selling to anyone not already in the MAGA movement.
Additionally, the former president's legal woes are only going to get worse as the election approaches. In the last few weeks alone, the Georgia RICO case against Trump has seen multiple defendants take plea deals that will be incredibly damaging to his case. With an additional three criminal cases pending in Florida, New York, and D.C., we can expect damaging leaks to continue through the general election. The possibility that Trump is a convicted felon by November 2024 is itself very real and in no way can be expected to do anything other than help Biden win a second presidential term.
Nicholas Creel is an assistant professor of business law at Georgia College and State University.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
