Putin Faces New Election Challenger

Detained former Russian commander Igor Girkin has announced his intent to run for the Russian presidency in 2024, a move that could spell bad news for Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, according to experts.

Girkin, a prominent nationalist who has publicly criticized how Putin leads the country and the military leadership's handling of the war in Ukraine, is in custody awaiting trial, having failed in an appeal in August against his pre-trial detention on charges of inciting extremism.

The former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer rose to prominence after assisting Russia's move to annex the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. He was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment by the Hague District Court in the Netherlands for his role in shooting down a Malaysian Airlines passenger jet on July 17, 2014, over Ukraine's Donetsk region, which killed 298 people.

Girkin's arrest in July came after he had been openly publishing commentary critical of Russia's military strategy and setbacks throughout Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Days before his arrest, Girkin called the Russian president a "cowardly mediocrity" and said Russia would not survive another presidential term by Putin.

Girkin has told his allies to prepare a campaign for his intended run for the Russian presidency, Oleg Nelzin, head of a pro-Girkin political group, said in a video published by Russian media outlet Sota on November 18. Russia's 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be held on March 17 next year.

"I understand perfectly well that in the current situation in Russia, participating in the presidential campaign is like sitting down at a table to play with card sharps," Girkin said in a letter published by his Telegram channel.

He said he hoped that his announcement would unite patriotic forces and would disrupt the Kremlin's attempt at a "sham election" in which "the only winner is known in advance".

"This is our chance to unite in the face of external and internal threats," Girkin said.

News of his presidential bid brings to focus his prior criticism of how the war has been handled, and Putin's leadership, spelling bad news for the Kremlin.

Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment via email.

Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert at the University of Oxford in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, told Newsweek that the very "bitter and sarcastic tone" of Girkin's electoral manifesto shows he believes Russia's forthcoming presidential voting procedure will be anything but free and fair and that the Kremlin would do anything to stop his name appearing on the ballot paper.

"Ostensibly, Girkin's aim is to galvanize the real fascist 10-15% of the electorate, those who blame the 'incompetent' and 'corrupt' military establishment in Moscow for being unable to crash Ukraine, capture Kyiv, and move on towards Warsaw," said Mykhnenko.

Mykhnenko said he believes Girkin's real aim in announcing a presidential bid is "to save his own skin, by scaring the Kremlin into offering him a release from prison deal, say, 'you keep your mouth shut until Putin's reelection, whilst we will drop all the [trumped up] charges against you.'"

"Recently, Girkin has complained about his rapidly deteriorating health whilst in detention, whilst in late September a very humiliating, close-up photograph of Girkin, being badly beaten up, bloodied, black-eyed, with a swollen or broken nose, was leaked from the detention facility to the Russian propaganda media channels," he added. "Hence, Girkin has every reason to worry about surviving his arrest and, therefore, declaring his presidential ambition is exactly the publicity he needs now to prevent the worst from happening."

In a statement posted on Telegram in August, Girkin listed six reasons why he's a better candidate than Putin, who he said is "too kind" and too "trusting" to lead the country. "I consider myself more competent in military affairs than the current president," he said at the time.

His open critique of the war draws parallels to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late chief of the Russian paramilitary outfit, the Wagner Group. He was killed in a private jet crash in August, weeks after his failed mutiny which he led against the Kremlin's top brass on June 24. His mercenaries marched toward Moscow after taking control of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, then turned back less than 24 hours after the mutiny had begun.

That followed months of criticizing the Kremlin's top brass, and how they handled the war in Ukraine.

The cause of the crash wasn't immediately clear. Ukraine, where Wagner mercenaries had been heavily involved in the war's fighting, denied responsibility. The Kremlin said speculation that Prigozhin had been killed on Putin's orders was an "absolute lie."

Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Chatham House think tank in London, told Newsweek that if Girkin is indeed a genuine opponent to Putin, then it "makes no sense for him to be allowed to run in the election—and it will be entirely at Putin's whim whether he is allowed to or not."

"So if he does in fact appear on ballot papers, it means one of two things. Either he is yet another representative of the fake opposition, put in place to provide the semblance of choice in Russia's perverse role-playing of democracy. Or, the Russian system is counting on its capacity to ensure a humiliatingly low vote for Girkin in order to discredit him," said Giles.

But Giles said it's very unlikely Girkin will be allowed to return to a position where he not only harbors views that are critical of Putin, but also has access to organized armed support.

"Putin will not allow the risk of another Prigozhin," Giles added.

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