Increasing chaos in Burundi could 'end in military coup'

The unstable political situation in Burundi could result in a military coup and increased regional tension, according to analysts.

Protests have been ongoing since last weekend when president Pierre Nkurunziza announced his intention to seek a third term in office in June's elections which many perceive as a breach of the constitution.

Reports have emerged that the Burundian military have been protecting protesters against police.

According to Frank Charnas, Africa analyst for global security consultancy Max Security, the situation has echoes of Burkina Faso, where former president Blaise Compaore was forced out of government by the military last year after attempting to change the constitution to extend his 27-year rule.

Charnas says the fact the military are protecting the protesters does not bode well for Nkurunziza and could presuppose a military coup.

"This entrance of the military to pull the police away from protesters puts the army in a very powerful position, because they gain the trust of protesters," says Charnas.

He also believes the international community has been slow to respond to the developing conflict in Burundi.

In spring 2014, local human rights groups disclosed that government-backed youth militias, called the Imbonerakure, were being armed and given military training. According to the New York Times, a leaked UN cable showed that the humanitarian organisation was aware of this process.

Charnas says it is now clear that these militias were being armed to intimidate members of the public into backing Nkurunziza's bid for a third term.

"This hasn't come out of nowhere, it could have been nipped in the bud," he says.

In legal terms, Nkurunziza's decision occupies a grey area. Burundi's constitution restricts presidents to serving two elected terms, but the president's supporters claim that his first term does not count, since he was appointed by parliament following the end to civil war in the country rather than being democratically elected.

Dr Charles Laurie, head of Africa at international risk analysts Verisk Maplecroft, says the president's apparent reneging of the Arusha peace agreement, signed in 2000 to bring an end to the civil war and which stipulates a maximum of two presidential terms, could create further regional discord.

"Competing rebel groups could easily view this decision as a reason to pursue a variety of political objectives that could fuel regional tensions," says Laurie.

Reuters reported that more than 600 university students camped outside the U.S. embassy in the capital Bujumbura on Wednesday after the government ordered the closure of the country's main university.

There has also been a social media blackout and radio stations have been closed in a bid to stop demonstrators congregating, according to the BBC.

More than 23,000 refugees from Burundi have fled into neighbouring Rwanda, 80% of whom are women and children, according to the UN. Many cited fears of forced recruitment by the Imbonerakure as their primary reason for fleeing.

Martina Pomeroy, a UN refugee agency official based in Rwanda's capital Kigali, says refugees reported having their houses marked out for retribution by militias if they were perceived to be opposing the government.

She says the UN has established a new camp in Mahama, southeastern Rwanda, where up to 1,800 refugees were being relocated to each day.

At $900, Burundi has one of the lowest GDPs per capita in the world. Following the assassination of the country's first democratically-elected president in 1993, more than 300,000 people died in ethnic violence between Hutus and Tutsis, which ended in 2005 with the coming to power of Nkurunziza, a Hutu.