Latest Forecast Models: Tropical Depression Likely Developing in Gulf of Mexico, Tracking Toward Gulf Coast (Louisiana to Florida Panhandle)

With characteristics to Hurricane Nate, which in 2017 delivered widespread destruction across Central America one year ago before making landfall in Louisiana and Mississippi, a system currently in the Caribbean now has high odds of moving into the Gulf of Mexico and becoming a tropical cyclone, forecasters said in the latest updates.

Classified like Nate the year before as a Central American gyre, capable of producing torrential rains, the system now has a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within two days and a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression within five days, the National Hurricane Center said. The latest forecast spaghetti models show the system, which will likely be named Michael, is likely to move north toward the Gulf Coast and make landfall on the Gulf Coast between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle.

When, Where would tropical cyclone Michael hit the Gulf Coast?

The storm could make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle as early as Wednesday of next week, according to the latest forecast models.

Already, the broad area of low pressure is large and capable of producing torrential rains.

"This gyre is so large that it has a separate area of lower pressures on the Pacific side of Central America, just offshore of Nicaragua, that is a threat to generate a separate tropical depression," reported Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground.

The National Hurricane Center said late Friday that conditions currently limiting development will change in the coming days, becoming more conducive for slow development.

"A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward to northward," the National Hurricane Center said. "Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days."

The storm could present flooding problems as it develops in Central America or the Southwest Caribbean in the coming days and ultimately it will move north, according to forecast models, striking Louisiana, Alabama or the Florida panhandle. Hurricane Nate had similar roots last year and hit Louisiana and Mississippi after becoming the costliest natural disaster in Costa Rica's history.