Israel Reins in Hamas Rocket Threat But Now Faces a More United Foe

The number of alerts triggered by rockets fired by Hamas and allied factions in the Gaza Strip against Israel has dropped by a factor of more than 1,000 since the record spike witnessed during the first week of the ongoing war, according to data based on Israel Defense Forces (IDF) figures.

The latest data compiled by online tracker Rocket Alert from IDF Home Front Command figures show only six alerts recorded this week in response to detected rocket fire from Gaza. The number of alerts tracked on this front during the opening week of the war that began on October 7, 2023, was 6,197.

The decline comes amid intensified IDF ground operations in Gaza, accompanied by relentless air strikes against the Palestinian movement's personnel and equipment in the densely populated territory.

"It's undoubtedly a significant achievement," Joe Truzman, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracy's (FDD) Long War Journal, told Newsweek.

However, Palestinian groups retained potent operational capabilities and have sought to leverage their common goals to overcome setbacks. Truzman argued that Hamas has been forced by battlefield losses to undergo a "significant shift towards consolidation in the face of dwindling resources," including by more closely coordinating with other factions to mount a united front against the IDF.

"As manpower and ammunition become scarce," Truzman said, "these groups are coming together to defend against the overwhelming strength of the Israeli military."

In addition to Hamas' Ezz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wings of other groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Popular Resistance Committees, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP-GC), the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades and the Palestinian Mujahideen Movement have continued to broadcast regular operations against IDF forces in Gaza.

With these groups coming under increasing pressure on the ground, Truzman noted that "Hamas and its allies have shifted their focus to targeting Israeli troops within Gaza itself."

Such deepened collaboration was advertised Thursday in a joint release by Islamic Jihad's Al-Quds Brigades and the DFLP's National Resistance Brigades Omar Al-Qasim Forces. Footage showed members of both groups firing mortars "targeting the gatherings of the Zionist enemy south of the Al-Zaytoun neighborhood" in Gaza.

The Al-Qassam Brigades also remained active, announcing on Thursday "the targeting of a Zionist vehicle with an R.P.G. [rocket-propelled grenade] shell in the Al-Taqadum axis in the town of Hamad, west of Khan Younis."

Threats continue to spill over into Israel as well. The IDF reported Thursday on sirens sounding in the Netiv HaAssara community near Gaza and announced that a mortal shell had been fired the previous day from central Gaza toward the kibbutz of Nahal Oz in southern Israel, though the projectile was said to have fallen within Gaza.

"Within a few minutes," the IDF said, "the terrorists responsible for the attempted launch were struck and eliminated by IDF aircraft."

The IDF reported on further operations targeting enemy operatives in the areas of Hamad and Bani Suheila, as well as raids against "Hamas' hideouts and military strongholds" in Khan Younis.

The loss of territory and equipment have also proved decisive in reducing the capacity and willingness of Hamas and its allies to launch rocket attacks against targets outside of Gaza, Truzman said.

Reached for comment, an IDF spokesperson told Newsweek that, "the IDF strikes terrorist targets in order to protect the security of the citizens of the State of Israel and to prevent Hamas from firing rockets into the country."

Newsweek has reached out to Hamas for comment as well.

But while reducing the threat posed to Israeli population centers by Palestinian factions in Gaza has been one primary goal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's war effort, the IDF continues to face challenges in accomplishing two other leading objectives.

"Despite Palestinian armed groups facing losses and ammunition shortages, Israel has yet to achieve its primary objectives of ousting Hamas from power and rescuing all of the hostages," Truzman said. "The main hurdles lie in identifying and neutralizing key Hamas leaders, particularly [Hamas Political Bureau chief in Gaza Yahya] Sinwar and those in his inner circle.

"While there have been some successes, these efforts have not significantly changed the course of the conflict."

Attacks also continue to strike at Israel from other directions.

A record 189 alerts were recorded last week amid a separate campaign of attacks led by the Lebanese Hezbollah movement from the north, a figure down to 79 this past week. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of Iran-aligned militias, announced a drone attack against Israel's Palmachim Air Base from an undisclosed location on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Israel continues to come under growing pressure to enact greater measures for the protection of civilians and expand the flow of humanitarian assistance in Gaza.

Against this backdrop, Truzman asserted that "time is another crucial factor in Israel's mission to achieve its objectives as the Jewish state requires support from allies, particularly the United States."

"Pressure on Israel to limit its operation is mounting, with Hamas capitalizing on this development to prolong the conflict and increase its chances of survival," he said. "The longer Hamas holds out, the more challenging it becomes for Israel to achieve its goals."

Update 3/14/24, 4:00 p.m. ET: This article was updated to include a graphic portraying the number of weekly alerts as compiled by RocketAlert.live, based on data from the IDF Home Front Command.

Update 3/15/24, 9:47 a.m. ET: This article was updated to include a comment from an Israel Defense Forces spokesperson.