It's Becoming Clear. Israel Could Cost Joe Biden Re-Election

Joe Biden is losing support among young people over his Israel policy, meaning he could lose next year's presidential election.

On October 7, Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, killing about 1,200 people and seizing about 240 hostages according to the Associated Press, which prompted the Israelis to carry out extensive airstrikes and a ground offensive in Gaza. Close to 20,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Hamas-run Palestinian health officials, as cited by AP. Israeli military officials say 118 soldiers have been killed during the country's ground invasion.

The U.S. has long been an ally of Israel and, following the attacks, Biden, who recently called himself a Zionist, reiterated Washington's support. He said that Israel has the right to defend itself, proposing $14 billion in aid and providing weapons. He has also resisted calls for a ceasefire.

However, he has since softened his language. Earlier this month he told a campaign fundraising event that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is "starting to lose support" and that changes needed to be made because of the mounting death toll in Gaza.

Now, a new poll by the New York Times/ Siena College has found that nearly 75 percent of a sample of young voters aged between 18 and 29 disapprove of how the Democrat is handling the conflict. The same proportion believe Israel isn't doing enough to prevent civilian casualties in Gaza and 44 percent said Israel should end its military campaign even if Hamas is not defeated, to 39 percent who said it should continue.

It also found that 27 percent of young people sympathize with Israel while 47 percent sympathize with Palestinians.

The poll was conducted from December 10 to December 14, 2023. The sample size was 1,016 registered voters nationwide and the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The poll found that Biden's Republican rival and GOP front runner Donald Trump is attracting the support of 21 percent of young people who voted for Biden in 2020, who sympathize more with Palestine than Israel.

Overall, it found Trump leads the incumbent president among young voters by 49 percent to 43 percent, and has a 46 percent to 44 percent lead among registered voters overall.

Newsweek has contacted representatives of Biden for comment.

A Quinnipiac University poll released in November found that those under 35 are more likely to disapprove of Israel's response to the attack with 66 percent reporting so.

More than 40 interns who work at the White House and other branches of the executive office called for Biden to support a ceasefire in Gaza, accusing him of having ignored the "pleas of the American people" by not calling for an end to the war.

However, the New York Times/Siena College poll found that Biden leads by six points among those who voted in the 2020 election. Trump leads by 22 points among those who did not vote in 2020, although that demographic is less likely to vote in 2024.

Last week, polling conducted exclusively for Newsweek by Redfield and Wilton Strategies, found the proportion of people aged between 18 and 42 who support the president's response to the war has increased by 5 percentage points since October.

It found that 42 percent of Gen Z voters (aged 18-26) and 48 percent of millennials (aged 27-42) said they agree with how Biden has responded to the war between Israel and Hamas.

Meanwhile, 24 percent of Gen Z voters said they disapprove of his response, while 25 percent of millennials disapprove.

Speaking to Newsweek, Thomas Gift, associate professor of political science in the School of Public Policy at University College London, said Biden is facing a difficult situation.

He said: "President Biden is in a no-win situation on Israel. He's hearing it from all sides—from pro-Israel groups who expect the White House to give Prime Minister Netanyahu its full-throated support, as well as from pro-Palestinian groups who think the IDF's retaliation has been disproportionate and not sufficiently targeted.

"Young voters, and especially college students, comprise a nontrivial faction of Americans who appear increasingly wary over what they see as a White House that's too in lockstep with Israeli leadership. That's reflected in a concerning recent Harvard poll, which found that roughly two-thirds of 18-24 year olds view Jews as inherent 'oppressors.' Even if many youth voters won't cast their ballot for Trump, their waning support for Biden in light of the Israel-Hamas conflict could cost the president electorally if they simply decide not to show up on election day."

However, Mark Shanahan, an associate professor in politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said the polling may not affect Biden's chances in the next election. Of Biden's changing approach, he said: "The president is attempting to shift Netanyahu from what many young voters see as a recklessly vengeful path. And overall, that has swung the president's numbers up slightly. We've yet to hear much from Trump on the Israel/Hamas conflict, but if he follows form, the former president is likely to be unequivocal in his support for Israel. So if the conflict is still unresolved by November, young progressive voters are far more likely simply to stay at home on election day than to flock to the Republican cause."

He added: "Generally speaking, presidential elections are fought on the economy rather than foreign affairs, and while progress may be steady rather than spectacular, Biden has a good economic story to tell, which could be even better by the fall.

"And finally, the 18-29 category are the least likely to vote on election day anyway. While they remain important, especially in a close race, many simply don't vote whatever the stakes. The fear of a Trump return will force many Democrat-leaning young voters to the polls, and that fear is likely to outweigh their unhappiness with Biden's support for Israel."