New polling looks positive for President Joe Biden in his likely 2024 matchup against Donald Trump.
Biden has faced low approval ratings among the American electorate since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. Poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight puts Biden on just a 39 percent approval rating, with 54.9 percent disapproving of his presidency.
Voters have expressed concerns over inflation, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Biden's age among other issues, but there is some hope for the president's camp when it comes to a direct contest against Trump. Though the former president is leading in a number of polls, two recent ones have projected Biden to defeat him in a head-to-head matchup.
Trump is likely to be the Republican candidate for 2024 and is favorite to beat his only remaining party challenger Nikki Haley, but fighting Biden is a different prospect with the pair attempting to win over swing voters this year.
Good news for Biden
A report by Moody's Analytics says Biden could win two extra electoral college votes over Trump in 2024 compared with his overall score in the 2020 presidential election.
"President Biden is expected to win reelection but by a thin margin, and the election could easily flip with only small shifts in the economy's performance, his approval rating, voter turnout, and how well third-party candidates do," the report said.
"On the margin, political factors favor Trump's candidacy, while economic factors favor Biden's."
The report was based on economic performance and that it "hinges on our forecast for the strength of the economy between now and Election Day."
The likes of former Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow said he was wrong about pessimistic forecasts on a Joe Biden economy.
The White House, meanwhile, has pointed towards a Bureau of Economic Analysis report in an attempt to capitalize on a growth in the economy.
The report said the U.S. gross domestic production (GDP) grew by 3.3 percent in the last quarter.
And Biden said in a statement on January 25: "Today we learned that the U.S. economy grew 3.1 percent over the past year while adding another 2.7 million jobs, and with core inflation moving back down towards the pre-pandemic benchmark."
He added: "That is three years in a row of growing the economy from the middle out and the bottom up on my watch."
A Dow Jones estimate on February 2 also said the U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January despite an expectation of just 185,000.
The Moody's reports said Biden would win by a "thin margin" in November, but the margin in key states like North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia would be extremely tight.
It concluded: "If the economy continues to perform well as we anticipate and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain close to their recent historical norms, President Biden should win reelection."
Some leeway was also given to the prediction of a Biden win, with Moody's saying Biden could lose North Carolina and Nevada and still win, but losing Pennsylvania could sound a death knell for the president's campaign.
Further recent polling is also positive for Biden. A new Quinnipiac University survey from January 25-29 put Biden six points ahead of Trump in a one-on-one matchup.
Among independent voters, Biden was favorable to Trump by 52 to 40 percent, according to the poll.
Gendered polling as part of the survey showed 58 percent of women preferred Biden, compared with 36 percent who would vote for Trump, while the hypothetical scenario of a five-person general election also put the incumbent in the lead.
Bad news for Biden
The same Quinnipiac poll puts Biden in second place in a potential matchup with Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley.
Here, the advantage for Biden among female voters could be significantly reduced.
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement: "A head-to-head matchup against Biden, Haley outperforms Trump, thanks to Independents."
Third-party candidates weakened Haley's position to second place behind Biden, however.
The Moody's report also said the economy-based approach was made up of "big assumptions in a highly uncertain economic time and given our highly fractured and contentious politics."
The economy may also be a difficult issue to stand Biden's campaign on, given that some polling favors Trump in this regard.
A Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll said 51 percent of swing-state voters think Trump would handle the economy better than Biden, on just 33 percent. Trump is ahead on this issue in every one of the key states cited in the Moody's report.
Trump, meanwhile, has pointed to inflation under the Biden administration, which peaked at 9.1 percent in June 2022. Prices in December 2023 had increased by 3.4 percent compared with the year before—the Federal Reserve has a target of two percent.
Trump also said the stock market rebounding since 2022 was down to positivity about his election chances.
"THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP," he wrote on his Truth Social media platform.
Potential developments in the coming weeks could also impact the election including the highly politicized border issue.
Biden has insisted he needs Congressional support to bring in more stringent border measures amid a standoff in Texas over a Supreme Court order to cut razor wire in a key part of the Rio Grande river.
Federal border agents have not been allowed in to the area despite the ruling and the likes of Trump, Texas Governor Greg Abbott and other prominent Republicans have warned of an "invasion" at the border.
The Bloomberg poll said just 30 percent of people favored Biden on the issue of immigration, 22 points behind Trump.
This poll did however say that 53 percent of voters in swing states said they would not back Trump if he was convicted of a crime. He is currently charged on 91 counts across four criminal indictments—he denies all of the charges and says they are politically motivated.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Benjamin Lynch is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is U.S. politics and national affairs and he ... Read more
