President Joe Biden's 2024 re-election odds suffered a blow this week after the Democrats lost control of Virginia's House of Delegates and unexpectedly relinquished the governor position in the same state.
On Thursday Republicans ended Democratic control of Virginia's House of Delegates in the elections, winning enough seats to achieve at least a 50-50 tie in the chamber. The upset for the Democrats will likely see Republicans take control of Virginia's House of Delegates.
The races for New York mayor, New Jersey governor and Virginia governor also took place this week. The Democrats won New York and New Jersey, with Eric Adams and Philip Murphy winning those elections respectively. Republican Glenn Youngkin beat Terry McAuliffe to become Virginia's governor.
These races are widely seen as a preview for the 2022 midterms and an indication of where the country's politics stand a year after Biden's victory over Donald Trump in the presidential election.
Following the elections, BetOnline saw the Democratic president's odds go from 7-2 to 4-1.
Donald Trump, the bookmakers' favorite to win the 2024 election, had odds of winning at 5-2.
Youngkin even entered the market for 2024 at 50-1 for the presidency and 30-1 to get nominated for it.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris went to 6-1 from 11-2 in succeeding in a 2024 White House bid, following the Virginia and gubernatorial elections, and Biden and Harris are now tied at 8-5 for the Democrat nomination for president.
As of Thursday morning, Ladbrokes places Trump at 3-1 to win the 2024 election, making him favorite. Biden now has 4-1 odds at winning, following by Harris with 6-1 and Republican Ron DeSantis at 12-1.
The GOP's Nikki Haley and former vice president Mike Pence come fifth and sixth, with 16-1 and 20-1 odds respectively.
"Trump has been favorite in the US Presidential betting for a few weeks now, and the recent election results have done Biden no favors at all," Jessica O'Reilly, head of Ladbrokes PR, told Newsweek.
BetOnline believes that the Republicans are most likely to win the presidency in 2024, seeing their odds slashed from 5-6 to 2-3.
Republicans went to 1-2 from 5-8 to win the Senate and to 1-7 from 1-5 to win the House.
Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek: "After the Democrats' disastrous week in which they shockingly lost Virginia and scraped heartland New Jersey—and a year since Joe Biden won the presidential election—the Republicans are now odds on at 5/6 to be the winning party in 2024, their odds being slashed from 11/10 a week ago.
"With Biden's popularity sinking, he is second favorite at 4-1 to be the next president behind Donald Trump who is the 3-1 favorite, while rising star Ron DeSantis is 9-1, having been 12-1 last month."
Biden's approval ratings continue to fade among Americans, following a summer surge of the pandemic, a chaotic Afghanistan military withdrawal and Democratic in-fighting over a multi-trillion-dollar spending package that's key to the president's domestic agenda.
Neither Biden or Trump have officially announced a bid for 2024, although Trump has repeatedly teased a return to the White House since leaving office in January.
It is important to note that betting on a political election is against the law in the United States.
Update 11/04/21, 9.20 a.m. ET. This article was updated with a quote from Betfair.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Jack Dutton is a Newsweek Reporter based in Cape Town, South Africa. His focus is reporting on global politics and ... Read more
