John Bolton's Chances of Beating Trump in 2024 for GOP Nomination

Former national security adviser John Bolton is reportedly planning to seek the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race, but his chances of garnering enough support to beat Donald Trump are slim to none, according to experts.

Bolton, who also served as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006, said during an appearance on NBC News' Meet The Press last month that he was "absolutely" considering launching a 2024 bid for the White House. On Friday morning, Good Morning Britain tweeted that Bolton had exclusively told the television program that he plans to run for president.

The program shared a clip of an interview where Bolton explained that he would get into the race on the basis that the country needs a "much stronger foreign policy." Bolton also said that he thinks Trump's support within the GOP party is in "terminal decline," and that if he didn't think he could run seriously, then he wouldn't get in the race.

Newsweek reached out to the John Bolton PAC for confirmation and comment on Bolton's 2024 plans.

Trump officially announced his 2024 candidacy this past November after teasing a potential bid for months. Some recent polling, such as an Emerson College survey last December, show that the former president would be the favorite in a GOP presidential primary. Others, however, indicate that he could be upset by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, who was reelected to the gubernatorial office in November's midterm elections, has not officially declared a 2024 run, but has been frequently named as a top GOP contender.

But polling that indicates support for Trump may be waning does not mean that Bolton is likely to beat the former president for the Republican nomination.

Dr. Joshua Sandman, a professor of political science at the University of New Haven, told Newsweek on Friday that he doesn't believe Bolton has a chance of winning, or even coming close to winning, the GOP nomination in 2024.

"Bolton, in Republican politics, does not have much political visibility outside a narrow group of people interested in foreign policy issues," Sandman said. "It would be very difficult to take the spotlight from Trump, [former Vice President] Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis or other more broadly known Republicans contenders."

Though Bolton once served in the Trump administration from 2018 to 2019, he was fired from his role as national security adviser, and has since emerged as a frequent and vocal critic of the former president. During his Meet The Press appearance where he discussed potentially running for president, Bolton said at the time: "I think when you challenge the Constitution itself the way Trump has done, that is un-American."

Bolton's criticism of Trump would be "helpful" for gaining support among non-MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans, but "many better-known Republicans have also been critical of former President Trump," Sandman added.

Former Wyoming Representative Liz Cheney has been extremely critical of Trump over his alleged involvement in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot and gained considerable attention in her work on the House committee investigating the insurrection. After losing her GOP primary to a Trump-backed challenger in August, Cheney did not rule out potentially running for president.

Christopher Devine, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Dayton, agrees that Bolton does not stand a chance of winning in a potential 2024 matchup.

[Bolton] has no base of support within the Republican Party, and has never run for elected office," Devine told Newsweek. "Even in a wide-open field, it would be very difficult for him to win the nomination. But with Donald Trump also running, as a former president who is still widely popular in the Republican Party, Bolton has little hope of coming in first."

Devine added that it seems more likely that Bolton is aiming to block Trump from getting the GOP nod for 2024. As a contender, Bolton would be able to "make the case against" the former president on the debate stage, ensuring that Republicans will be confronted with what Bolton sees as clear reasons why Trump is not fit for office, Devine said.

Dr. Rob Goodman, a political theorist and assistant professor in Toronto Metropolitan University's Department of Politics and Public Administration, said that Bolton's lack of a track record for serving in elected office could put him at a disadvantage in a 2024 bid. Another disadvantage is that Bolton's biggest name recognition has to do with foreign policy and is associated with neoconservatives who were the "driving force behind the Iraq War" in the George W. Bush administration, he told Newsweek.

Goodman believes that the issue for someone like Bolton, who has earned a reputation for calling for aggressive foreign policy, is that the types of foreign policy he's associated with "just aren't very popular in the Republican Party or in the country as a whole."

"In general, foreign policy just doesn't drive that much support one way or the other when it comes to primary elections or to public opinion in general," Goodman said.