Democrat John Fetterman is narrowly leading opponent Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania's Senate race, according to the latest forecasts.
A week before Election Day, Fetterman is ahead by 1.5 percentage points, an average of recent polls compiled by Real Clear Politics shows.
However, recent polling also indicates that Fetterman's chances in the closely watched race, which could decide control of the Senate, may have been hurt by his rocky debate performance against Oz, a Republican who shot to fame as a TV doctor.
Fetterman, the state's lieutenant governor, struggled to communicate effectively, jumbling words and speaking haltingly, as he took on Oz during the hourlong event on October 25, more than five months after he suffered a stroke.
He later acknowledged that doing the debate "wasn't exactly easy" just months after his stroke. "In fact, I don't think that's ever been done before in American political history," he said.
An Insider Advantage poll conducted a day after the debate had Oz ahead by 3 percentage points.
However, that poll was criticized. Tom Bonier, CEO of the political consulting firm TargetSmart, tweeted that the sample did not include enough voters under 40 and that it should be "entirely ignored."
A recent New York Times/Siena College poll had Fetterman ahead by 5 percentage points, gaining an estimated 49 percent of the vote compared with Oz's 44 percent. However, most of the poll was conducted before last Tuesday's debate.
Meanwhile, political analysis site FiveThirtyEight projects that Fetterman is "slightly favored" to win the race, giving him a 57 percent chance and Oz 43 percent.
Polls influencing the forecast include a poll from Co/efficient, a research and analytics company, that was conducted between October 26 and 28 and had Oz ahead by 3 percentage points.
A Wick poll conducted between October 26 and 27 also had Oz ahead, with an estimated 48 percent of the vote, compared with Fetterman's 46 percent.
Meanwhile, bookmakers favor Oz's chances.
OddsChecker, a website that aggregates betting data from dozens of bookmakers, has Oz's odds of victory at -172, with an implied probability of about 63 percent. Fetterman's odds are priced at +138, which has a much lower implied probability of 42 percent.
"By all accounts, the Oz-Fetterman race will go down to the wire, and it remains to be seen whether either candidate can make a last-minute push in the polls," Thomas Gift, founding director of University College London's Centre on U.S. Politics, told Newsweek on Tuesday.
"The big question is how much Fetterman's unsteady debate performance last week, and concerns about his health more broadly, could tip the scales," he continued. "While it's certainly the case that the debate didn't help Fetterman's cause, ultimately what his candidacy represents is a vote for the Democratic agenda. So if Pennsylvanians prefer that to Republican control in the Senate, that may be the bigger factor than judgments about Fetterman's health status."
Robert Speel, a political science professor at Penn State Behrend, told Newsweek that it was not clear what impact last week's debate has had on the race.
"Polls that have been released so far were conducted at least partially before that debate or immediately afterward when debate news was at its highest," he said. "Some of the polls that indicate Dr. Oz may be in the lead are from companies that often tend to release results more favorable to Republicans than other polls.
"At this point, the small universe of undecided voters in Pennsylvania may still be persuadable, so the Fetterman and Dr. Oz campaigns are hard at work across the state to try to reach those voters," Speel continued. "Fetterman is still probably a slight favorite in the race, but a national swing toward Republicans in the elections this month could carry Dr. Oz to victory."
Republicans need to pick up just one Senate seat to flip control of the now evenly divided chamber.
The Pennsylvania race is an opportunity for the GOP to hold on to the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey. Elsewhere, Republican candidates are aggressively challenging Democratic incumbents in such states as Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.
On Saturday, President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama will rally together in support of Fetterman and gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro in Philadelphia, The Hill reported.
On Friday night, Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris made a rare, joint appearance at a fundraiser to boost support for the candidates.
The Fetterman and Oz campaigns have been contacted by Newsweek for comment.
Update 11/1/22, 9 a.m. ET: This story has been updated with a comment from Thomas Gift.
Update 11/1/22, 12:15 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with a comment from Robert Speel.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Khaleda Rahman is Newsweek's Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. Her focus is reporting on abortion rights, race, education, ... Read more
