Kentucky Derby Predictions, Betting Picks: Maximum Security, Tacitus, Win Win Win Draw Attention

Once early favorite Omaha Beach, at 4-1 odds, dropped out of the Kentucky Derby 2019, the field became both a bettor's dream and a bettor's nightmare. Picking a winner from the field of 19 horses won't be easy, but those who get lucky and pick today's Run for the Roses winner will get a generous payout.

Post time at the Kentucky Derby today is 6:50 p.m. Eastern Time. NBC is the TV channel broadcasting the event.

Among the horses drawing attention is Maximum Security, the morning line favorite at 9/2 odds. Maximum Security, a Bob Baffert trained horse (one of three Baffert has in the field), has previously won this year on a sloppy track and it is raining today in the Louisville area. The Churchill Downs track will be in off conditions, likely either muddy or sloppy though it may not be raining at post time, according to the latest forecast.

Maximum Security, who won at Gulfstream Park in January in sloppy conditions, is today's Kentucky Derby predicted winner/best bet from Associated Press writer Tim Reynolds. Other horses who have run well on a sloppy track include War of Will, Plus Que Parfait, By My Standards and Improbable.

"Horseplayers will have tons of options that will make perfect sense and that means their wagering money — a record $225 million in handle last year on the Derby alone — will be spread widely," Reynolds reported. "Short odds won't happen; the favorite will probably go off around 5-1, so payouts for exactas and trifectas could be enormous."

Predicting favorite Maximum Security as the winner isn't too big a bet considering the favorite at post time in the last six Kentucky Derby races has won, including Justify last year. Also, Maximum Security has four wins in its past four starts.

Reynolds' pick today : "Maximum Security over Improbable, Tacitus and Game Winner. For the exotic plays, add Code of Honor and if it's wet, War of Will."

Another horse betting expert likes Tacitus today as the best bet.

"My choice is the one nobody talking about," Jerry Izenberg wrote today at nj.com. "His name is Tacitus. He's won in the mud and he's won after taking the bad end of a horrific collision in the Wood Memorial. His jockey, Jose Ortiz, knows him well. He will bring Hall of Fame Bill Mott his first Kentucky Derby victory. "

Finally, Sportsline horse betting expert Jody Demling, known for a decade of strong predictions in the Kentucky Derby, According to CBS Sports, Demling isn't high on Roaster, among the favorites. He does, however, like Win Win Win, at 12-1 odds.

"Win Win Win finished third and second in his next two starts, both of which were around two turns," CBS reported. "And even though those two-turn races were not rated as highly as his one-turn win in the Pasco, he still finished extremely fast in both. He enters Saturday's race at Churchill Downs as arguably the most dangerous closer in the entire Kentucky Derby field. More importantly, after having a different jockey in his last two races, Win Win Win gets Pimentel back in the saddle. "

Here are the latest odds late Saturday morning:

Post Position / Horse / Trainer, Jockey / Latest Updated Odds

1. War of Will (Casse/Gaffalione) | 17-1

2. Tax (Gargen/Alvarado) | 35-1

3. By My Standards (Calhoun/Saez) | 16-1

4. Gray Magician (Miller/VanDyke) | 31-1

5. Improbable (Baffert/Ortiz Jr.) | 5-1

6. Vekoma (Weaver/JCastellano) | 22-1

7. Maximum Security (Servis/Saez) | 9-2

8. Tacitus (Mott/Ortiz) | 5-1

9. Plus Que Parfait (Walsh/Santana Jr.) | 55-1

10. Cutting Humor (Pletcher/Smith) 24-1

13. Code of Honor (McGaughey III/Velasquez) 13-1

14. Win Win Win (Trombetta/Pimentel) 15-1

15. Master Fencer (Tsunoda/Leparoux) 52-1

16. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) 9/2 | 6-1

17. Roadster (Baffert/Geroux) 10-1

18. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) 49-1

19. Spinoff (Pletcher/Franco) 51-1

20. Country House (Mott/Prat) 62-1

21. Bodexpress (Delgado/Landeros) 99-1