Large Earthquakes Can Be Heralded by Early Warning Signs, Say Seismologists

Large earthquakes could be forecast by early warning signs detectable months or even a year beforehand, seismologists have reported in a study.

Scientists discovered that unique seismic signals were detectable around eight months before the devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria in February 2023.

The new findings published in Nature Communications could improve seismologists' ability to predict huge and devastating earthquakes.

The Turkey-Syria earthquake was hugely destructive, killing over 50,700 people and injuring nearly double this. An estimated 4 million buildings were damaged and around 345,000 apartments were destroyed.

Earthquakes are incredibly difficult to predict. Scientists are continuing to look into warning signs to see if there is any way to predict a huge earthquake such as this.

The Turkey earthquake struck the East Anatolian Fault Zone. It started at a secondary fault, and then propagated to the main fault, the study reported.

The researchers found that there was an increase in seismic signals and larger energy releases from around eight months before the earthquake. These signals were organized in clusters within 40 miles of the epicenter, the study reported. Although the main rupture occurred on a fault known to be high risk for earthquakes, these warning signs took place on a secondary fault which is not looked at as often.

"With our methods we might be able to 'feel' that something is changing in terms of fault activity, but we are not ready to determine the size of any potential upcoming event," Patricia Martínez-Garzón, lead author of the study and group leader at the Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, told Newsweek.

"Other studies have applied similar techniques before on other settings, and there are already some observations of seismicity preceding large earthquakes in other regions, such as California. But they are not always present, and also sometimes they might be present and not lead to an earthquake."

However, every earthquake and fault system is different, meaning predictions remain extremely challenging. The author notes there is still a lot of research to be done in this area.

"The next goal is to understand when such signals can be detected, and what can be their potential contribution in earthquake forecasting. To do this, combining observations from the field with laboratory experiments can be really valuable," Martínez-Garzón said.

Due to the destruction large earthquakes can cause, any new research into prediction techniques is valuable.

Annemarie Christophersen, hazard and risk scientist at GNS Science in New Zealand, said in a statement that case histories like this are "important for improving our understanding of processes that lead up to the occurrence of a major earthquake."

"However, as the authors point out themselves, apparent earthquake nucleation processes vary between different events, and it is difficult to distinguish preparatory processes from other observations. Thus, intermediate-term earthquake warnings are not possible at this stage, and may never be," Christophersen said.

Similarly, Dr. Lauren Vinnell, lecturer of emergency management, Joint Centre for Disaster Research, Massey University, said that "any research which advances our understanding of earthquakes is valuable."

"As the authors say, however, we are still a way off immediate-term earthquake 'warnings' (their research deals with forecasting, which is notably different from warning)," Vinnell said in a statement.