Latest Models: Tropical Storm Kirk Won't Become Hurricane, May Strengthen Short-Term

Tropical Storm Kirk path, track
Tropical Storm Kirk is tracking toward the Lesser Antilles but the storm is not expected to become a hurricane, according to the latest NOAA models. NOAA

Tropical Storm Kirk isn't likely to become a hurricane, but it could dump heavy rain on the Lesser Antilles Islands next week, according to the latest forecast models.

The National Hurricane Center said Kirk, located more than 2,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, will likely strength a bit in the next couple of days as it encounters warmer water. But the NHC said the forecast models suggest that later "in the forecast period, Kirk should be encountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause weakening."

The NHC predicts that Kirk will have maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour in two days, but that's less than hurricane strength. Kirk will then likely weaken back to winds of 40 to 45 miles per hour in four to five days, according to the latest forecast.

But the storm may generate enough strength to give the Lesser Antilles Islands a dose of heavy rain once it passes by, threatening flash flooding and landslides.

"If the 0Z and 6Z Sunday runs of the GFS, European, HWRF, and HMON models are correct, high wind shear and dry air should be able to destroy Kirk's circulation just before or soon after it arrives in the Lesser Antilles Islands on Thursday," reported Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground on Sunday.

"However, Kirk may still be capable of trouble in this scenario, as the storm could pack tropical storm-force winds and dump heavy rains of 3 – 6 inches in the islands, causing flash floods and landslides."

Kirk became the 11th named storm of the 2018 Atlantic season Saturday.

"This strong wind shear is expected to rip Kirk apart, possibly to the point of degenerating it into a tropical wave by the time it reaches the Windward Islands late Thursday or Friday," the Weather Channel said.

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