Libertarians Sense Golden Opportunity to Make 2024 Breakthrough

Libertarian Party activists see the likely repeat of the last presidential election as an opportunity to shine through in 2024—but they still need a candidate to do it.

Among an already crowded field, many are playing up to key issues for libertarians: pledging to uphold individual freedoms, ending America's penchant for war—including seeking a negotiated peace in Ukraine—and significantly cutting the scale of the federal government.

While there is no clear frontrunner as yet, party members say whoever becomes their candidate next year could capitalize on two likely main-party candidates who are already proving to be deeply unpopular with voters to make an Electoral College breakthrough for the first time in its 50-year history—something at least one hopeful is said to have already pledged to do if nominated.

"Libertarians intend to 'take' so many votes from the RepubliCrats that neither of their candidates can win, and we win instead," Spike Cohen, who was the Libertarian vice presidential candidate in 2020, told Newsweek, when asked about splitting the 2024 vote.

"If we fall short of that, we will still have a major impact," he added. "And if they want so many voters to stop voting for us, they should put up candidates that suck less."

But Libertarians cast themselves not only as the "the alternative people are looking for," as Jo Jorgensen, the party's 2020 presidential candidate, put it, but the only ones who have stuck to principles they say Democrats and Republicans have abandoned.

"If somebody votes for me instead of, let's say, a Republican, I would suggest it's because the Republican spent too much money, increase taxes too much and just did other things they weren't supposed to be doing," she told Newsweek.

"If a Democrat votes for a Libertarian, it's because the Democratic candidate isn't offering what they traditionally offer. And you know it really breaks my heart, because when I was growing up in the 60s and 70s, I remember the Democratic Party being very anti-war and pro-free speech," Jorgensen added. "Now, you wouldn't even recognize them."

Newsweek approached the campaigns of Donald Trump and Joe Biden via email for comment on Thursday.

The Libertarian Party, like the two main parties, has not been immune from backlash. In July, its New Hampshire wing was accused of racism by former Ohio state Senator Nina Turner, who is Black. She had tweeted that insulin and medicine should be free, to which the Libertarian Party NH replied "Nina Turner picking crops should be free."

Who Will Carry the Liberty Torch in 2024?

Polling on the Libertarian primary field is scant, and largely academic: the party chooses their nominee at its national conference in May, not in state primaries or caucuses, though some candidates have visited individual state conventions to curry favor.

In June, entrepreneur Lars Mapstead traveled to Maine for the state party's convention and, according to Tyler Rowe, an activist there, "his message resonated with Mainers," including his vow to aim for winning an Electoral College vote come election night.

"For a state like Maine, that's really important to us because we have split electoral districts," he told Newsweek. "So as far as a bang for your buck in campaigning and forming resources into a presidential campaign, a state like Maine, a state like Nebraska—that also splits electoral votes—is one where you could actually have an impact and really raise the visibility of a third party like the Libertarian Party."

For Harrison Kemp, chair of the Maine Libertarian Party, Mapstead is among the frontrunners for the nomination, along with Chase Oliver, a former Senate candidate in Georgia credited with causing a runoff election there in 2022, former Floridian police officer Mike ter Maat, and Joshua Smith, a veteran and self-described "blue-collar worker."

Other declared candidates include Jacob Hornberger, a Texan lawyer who previously ran for the party's nomination in 2000 and 2020, and Michael Rectenwald, an author and scholar who has filed with the Federal Election Commission but has yet to officially launch his campaign.

"Depending on who you talk to, and what poll you look at, they're all right about neck and neck," he said.

Others are not so sure. Maine activist Rowe said the field was "still pretty wide open" but admitted that Mapstead was "getting the most exposure" and was someone "we've heard the most from" in Maine. Jordan Marinovich, communications director for the Libertarian Party of Colorado, said "there is not one clear frontrunner."

He told Newsweek that there was an added dimension to the race due to an internal division within the party between "pragmatist libertarians"—who "want to play nice with the [two-party] system" and achieve 5 percent of the electoral vote—and the Mises Caucus associated with former Texas congressman Ron Paul, which is comprised of "more philosophical libertarians" who do not want to bend the party's message.

Marinovich said Joshua Smith was part of the Mises Caucus but was "not a clear favorite here in Colorado" while Chase Oliver was in the pragmatist camp and at the "back of the pack for Colorado." He also suggested that "a lot of folks that don't like the fact that [ter Maat] was a retired cop two years ago" and Mapstead would be a "consolation prize" if he was made the party's nominee.

"As of right now, it's kind of a motley crew of smaller, less well-known folks," he told Newsweek.

With the convention eight months away, a major shake-up of the race is not off the table. Both Marinovich and Rowe touted Spike Cohen as a possible big name in the libertarian sphere who could yet throw his hat in the ring—and swiftly become the frontrunner.

"I think he could unite those two factions if he was to be the nominee," Marinovich said. "He's someone who I could see the activists and party members really coalescing around if he were to jump into the race," Rowe remarked.

"That's not what I'm hearing," Jorgensen responded when questioned about a possible Cohen run. The man himself said he had "not ruled out running," but added that "it will ultimately come down to how I can be of best service to the liberty movement."

Another name floated by Rowe is Justin Amash, the party's only congressman to date, who switched from the GOP before stepping down from Congress in 2021. In 2020, he formed an exploratory committee for a presidential run, but later withdrew. "I could see him throwing his hat in the ring," Rowe said.

Newsweek approached seven other state parties where Libertarians have previously performed well with interview requests, but did not receive a response.

Taking the Torch to the Elephant and the Donkey

While early polling indicates incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will be the likely nominees for their respective parties, it also finds they are both viewed unfavorably by the electorate.

An aggregate of approval surveys gave Biden a 56 percent disapproval rating as of Thursday, while similarly Trump was viewed unfavorably by 56.1 percent of U.S. voters as of Wednesday.

This may open the door for a compelling third party candidate to snatch votes from either likely nominee—as Green Party activists have already said of Cornel West—simply by casting themselves as a viable alternative to their mainstream rivals, who have already gone toe-to-toe once before.

While the Libertarian Party candidate took home just 1.2 percent of the vote in 2020, it saw its best performance to date in 2016 with the relatively well-known former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson as its candidate, receiving 3.3 percent of the national tally.

"We are not here to 'reform' the status quo. We are not here to make marginal changes on the edges and pretend we did something big," Cohen said. "We are here for a revolution. A peaceful one, but a revolution all the same. And we invite every American who is sick of the status quo to join us."

He added: "The difference between Libertarians and the RepubliCrats (or DemoBlicans, if you prefer) is that they think they can run your life better than you can. That folly has created the mess we're in."

"We've experienced both of them [Trump and Biden], and we don't care for either," Kemp said. "Whether Trump or Biden wins, we get worse outcomes than we would if we had a Libertarian in—so our goal is to win."

Rowe predicted that a Libertarian candidate would offer a "real, stark contrast" to both Biden and Trump, noting the increases in government spending under both presidents. Claims that a third-party candidate could sway the election in one way or the other are "a tactic," he said, adding that "both parties say that" but activists "just kind of shrug it off and laugh."

Kemp argued that even though Trump had deregulated some areas, "he still brought in a lot of new regulations [and] he put in a lot of new spending. And...part of the reason our economy is experiencing such hyperinflation right now is [due to] a lot of the policies and spending that he started and carried through to Biden."

Inflation is a top priority for U.S. voters, and activists who spoke to Newsweek suggested any Libertarian candidate—who, they say, rarely differ much between one another on policy—would be able to offer a persuasive response on the issue.

Jorgensen described inflation as a "hidden tax" as "it moves you up to a higher tax bracket... So you might be in a lower tax bracket and now thanks to inflation, you're basically making the same amount, buying the same amount, but the dollar number's higher—so now you're paying a higher tax rate."

Biden signed into law the Inflation Reduction Act to combat rising prices following the coronavirus pandemic, but Libertarian Party members argue this appropriated billions in government spending that only worsened the nation's finances. "He came into a situation where it already wasn't good and he added to it," Kemp said.

The Libertarian solution to easing the effects of inflation, unsurprisingly, is cutting government spending and lowering taxes, something which Marinovich said "the other two parties never seem to be concerned with."

This includes cutting foreign aid, such as further military aid to Ukraine as it fights a Russian invasion. Many Libertarian candidates and activists have called for a negotiated settlement to bring the war to an end. "We want to stop having America be the world's policemen," Rowe noted.

"Whoever our candidate is, would definitely be pushing for cutting spending; they would be pushing for a more balanced budget," Kemp said, but added that a Libertarian would scale back the size of the federal government over a period of 10-15 years, "otherwise you're going to end up hurting a lot of people that you're trying to help."