Map Shows US Cities Russia Would Strike First if War Broke Out

A direct clash between Russia and NATO would put the world "one step away from a full-scale World War III," Russian President Vladimir Putin told reporters this week as he celebrated a preordained victory in the country's presidential election and underscored his uncompromising Ukraine strategy.

The threat of nuclear escalation has been ever-present as the West continues to bolster Ukraine and frustrate the Kremlin's military campaign. For Moscow, the nuclear card has been useful in deterring deeper NATO involvement in the conflict. "Everything is possible in the modern world," Putin warned this week.

There is no indication that a nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia is imminent. U.S. officials have repeatedly said they see no signs of Russia preparing to use nuclear weapons, regardless of the bellicose rhetoric employed by Putin and his Kremlin allies or the decision to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

A nuclear exchange would be disastrous for all involved. The Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia has around 5,580 nuclear weapons, compared with the U.S.'s 5,428. Both are thought to have around 1,600 active deployed strategic nuclear warheads.

In 2019, Princeton's Science and Global Security program published a "Plan A" simulation of how a limited tactical nuclear exchange in Europe could escalate into a full-scale global nuclear conflict. It estimated that 91.5 million people would die within hours and many more in the months and years afterward.

A Russian nuclear strike on the U.S. homeland would look to decapitate American political and military leadership, sever vital command and control communication channels, nullify as many nuclear assets as possible, and devastate key industrial and commercial zones.

Washington, D.C., New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas-Fort Worth, Miami, Philadelphia, Houston, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Denver and Miami would likely be among the top metro area targets, given their mix of political, military and industrial value.

Elsewhere, the presidential retreat at Camp David in Maryland and the Raven Rock Mountain Complex in Pennsylvania—home to underground bunkers intended for Pentagon use—would likely be targeted as Moscow sought to dismember the political and military chains of command.

Key radio transmitter facilities would serve as vital channels of communication to American nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which would be tasked with launching retaliatory strikes on Russian cities. The Jim Creek Naval Radio Station in Washington state and the Lualualei very low frequency transmitter in Hawaii would likely be top targets in this respect.

Russian ballistic missiles would likely target major military and nuclear sites such as Virginia's Naval Station Norfolk, the headquarters and home port of the U.S. Navy's Fleet Forces Command.

North American Air Defense Command headquarters at the Peterson Space Force Base in Colorado Springs, U.S. Strategic Command at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska and the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center at Hill Air Force Base in Utah would also be prime targets. So too would be the Pantex Plant in Amarillo, Texas, which serves as the U.S.'s primary nuclear weapons assembly and disassembly facility.

A wide range of nuclear missile sites are spread across the sparsely populated Western and Midwest states. Russian strikes would likely look to destroy nuclear-capable aircraft and other assets at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota and Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana.