Michigan Map Shows Where State Could Be Underwater From Lake Level Rise

A new interactive map shows how Michigan's lakes may expand as climate change forces water levels to rise—widening the shorelines and submerging surrounding areas.

More than 30 million people live alongside the Midwest's Great Lakes, which boast about 4,500 miles of coastline and stretch from the U.S. into Canada. The state of Michigan is shaped by its vast waterways—including Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, and Erie—making the "Great Lakes State" particularly susceptible to water-level changes. Expanding shorelines could see neighborhoods, homes and workplaces lost to the lakes.

"New research using the most advanced regional climate modeling systems finds that the baseline lake level for Lake Superior, Michigan-Huron and Erie are expected to rise by roughly 20 to 50 centimeters by 2050 as a result of climate change," researchers at the American Geophysical Union wrote in a 2022 report. "Like sea level rise, higher lake levels can increase coastal erosion, change navigation considerations and increase the risk of coastal flooding."

Research by Michigan Technological University in 2022 showed that water levels had changed even more than that in recent years. "Over the past decades, the water levels of the Great Lakes have undergone dramatic fluctuations, exhibiting a range exceeding 2 meters," the researchers wrote. "These changes are due to climate-induced alterations in the three primary components of the lakes' water budget: over-lake precipitation, lake evaporation, and basin runoff."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has now created a tool that allows lakeside residents, and any other curious individuals, to conduct their own research. The government agency has created an interactive map on its website that shows how the lake's shorelines may change under various lake level rises, allowing users to adjust the water levels to see how the changes affect the state.

Lake Michigan, which is bordered by several states, is shown with a low water datum level of 1.90 feet and a high LWD of 4.92 feet. If that level were raised to an LWD level of 10 feet—the worst scenario possible on the interactive map—the effects would be catastrophic.

On the western side of the state, rising water levels would flood into Muskegon Lake, which in turn would spill over and submerge an area as far inland as the North Channel Muskegon River.

The effects would be even more dramatic on the state's eastern side if Lake Huron were to rise. Entire neighborhoods would be left underwater, including Essexville, Bangor Township and Bay County. Venues such as the Bay City Infinity Skate Park and Spring Valley Golf Course would also be submerged.

It's not only lakes that experts predict may see rising water levels. The oceans are set to rise too, and the NOAA has also created maps to show what effect that may have on various countries.

Billy Sweet, an NOAA oceanographer, told Newsweek in an emailed statement on April 12 that the agency's interactive tools are "a versatile mapping platform that provides insights on what lies in harm's way."

"Due to decades of sea level rise, high tides are drowning wetlands and routinely flooding U.S. coastal communities, disrupting commutes and commerce and requiring extensive upgrades to public works like storm- and waste-water systems," he added.

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates there is likely to be a steep sea level rise by the year 2100 if global greenhouse gas emissions are not mitigated. An increase "of 2 or more meters cannot be ruled out," officials said.

The NOAA has also provided interactive maps showing how countries' shapes may change, with their coastal cities submerged, when sea levels rise by varying amounts.

A rise of 6 feet, or almost 2 meters, in sea levels would see the U.S. state of Georgia badly damaged, while large portions of Los Angeles and San Diego would also vanish and parts of New York would end up underwater.

Such forecasts are still only predictions, and it is notoriously difficult to predict sea level rises because they could change almost in an instant. For example, if an ice sheet were to suddenly collapse into the sea and melt.