Michigan Republican Unseated After Losing to Democrat by 20 Points

A Republican county commissioner has been unseated in Michigan after losing to her Democratic challenger by 20 percentage points in a recall vote.

Chris Kleinjans won an Ottawa County election on Tuesday with 60 percent of the vote share, while the Republican incumbent Lucy Ebel lost, having gained 40 percent.

The county election comes as Michigan is a key battleground state in November's presidential election. Former President Donald Trump won the county with 61 percent of the vote in 2020. He also narrowly won the state in 2016 before losing it to President Joe Biden in 2020.

Newsweek contacted the Michigan Republican Party by email outside of normal business hours to comment on this story and will update if there is a reply.

The Context

Ebel faced a recall vote after a was signed by some 3,000 people after she voted in favor of a motion to reverse Adeline Hambley's selection as the top health official in the county on February 28, 2023. Legal concerns had been raised about the motion.

The recall vote drew eyes because what happens in Michigan may indicate the result of the 2024 election as it is a key swing state in the Electoral College. In 2016, Trump, the presumptive Republican candidate for this year's election, took Michigan, but incumbent President Joe Biden flipped it back in 2020, suggesting that the result in 2024 will be tight in this state in the rematch between the two candidates.

Some polls have shown Biden with a lead in the state, while others have shown Trump with the edge, and experts have said it is too early to know which way the state will go.

Six of the last seven presidential elections have gone in the Democrat's favor in the state.

What We Know

Ebel had said that she would win her recall vote.

"If I know that people of Ottawa County and District Two, they're very conservative, and I think that they will want to keep Ottawa County conservative," she told Fox 17 prior to the vote.

However, Ebel was easily defeated with just 1,665 votes compared to 2,502 for Kleinjans. Initial voter data showed a voter turnout of 20.6 percent across the county.

Views

"I am grateful and humbled that the hardworking people of this district have put their trust and confidence in me," Kleinjans said in a prepared statement after the win.

"The voters of District 2 made it clear that they reject the chaos, fiscal irresponsibility, and disrespect for county employees that exemplify Lucy Ebel and Ottawa Impact's style of government, and I will work every day to turn that around."

Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the U.K., told Newsweek: "Democrats may take some satisfaction at the Republican defeat in Ottawa County, West Michigan, but the recall election drew just 20 percent of the county's voters to the polls, a little over 4,000 in total, and can hardly be taken as an indicator of which way the presidential votes will go come November.

"What's notable is that the failed Republican candidate is part of the ultra-conservative 'Ottawa Impact' group, which has been successful in gaining a number of elected roles across the county. Democrats will very much hope that such right-wing grassroot groups are losing their grip on voters, and that this trend continues all the way up the ballot. But one local election is hardly a satisfactory portent of that," Shanahan added.

What's Next?

Kleinjans will serve on the board for the remainder of 2024.

Both Ebel and Kleinjans have filed to run for a four-year term in the general election.

Meanwhile, the extent to which this election is indicative of what will happen in the presidential election remains to be seen. That will take place on November 5.

Update: 5/8/2024, 5:45 a.m. EST: This story was updated with additional information and background