The Midterms Might Finally Shatter America's Two-Party System—Here's Why

Americans will head to the polls in less than a month to vote in crunch midterm elections, with control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs.

Republicans are both hoping to gain control of the Senate and House of Representatives, allowing them to effectively stymie President Biden's agenda until the 2024 presidential election.

However, there are signs that America's traditional party system, dominated almost completely by the Republicans and Democrats, could be starting to break down.

The proportion of voters identifying as 'independent' has increased dramatically over the past couple of decades.

Supporters of Mark Alford rally in Missouri
Supporters react to a speech by Mark Alford, Republican Candidate for Missouri's 4th Congressional District, during a rally outside his offices on October 14, 2022 in Raymore, Missouri. However the days of total Republican and... Kyle Rivas/GETTY

The most recent Gallup poll in September on party affiliation shows a clear lead for voters who consider themselves independent, with 43 percent. This is ahead of those identifying at Republican (30 percent) and Democrat (24 percent).

This is a significant increase on the figures for 2004, when only 27 percent of voters identified as independent.

In that year, when George W. Bush secured his second term in the White House, 35 percent of voters considered themselves to be Democrats and 38 percent identified with the GOP.

In August 2022 1,779,484 voters were registered in the battleground state of Nevada, where the Republicans are hoping to unseat Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto.

Of these, 517,160 were registered as independent, and another 137,772 for parties other than the Democrats or GOP, such as the Libertarian Party and Green Party.

A 2020 major report, by the Open Primaries Education Fund, predicted the proportion of voters registered as independent will increase further by 2035.

It forecasts an increase in the proportion of independent voters in nearly three-quarters of states with partisan voter registration.

The report said: "The United States is going through a political realignment.

"Unlike past realignments, which involved the emergence, repositioning, and/or obsolescence of entire political parties, the accelerating national trend of the last 30 years is voter disaffiliation from the Democratic and Republican Parties."

One of the strongest performing non-major party candidates is Marc J. Victor, who is running for the Senate in Arizona for the Libertarian Party.

A recent Arizona Public Opinion Pulse Poll, carried out by OH Predictive, found 15 percent of Arizonans plan to vote for Victor, versus 43 percent for Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly and 33 percent for Republican challenger Blake Masters.

Speaking to Newsweek, Victor said polls showing a fall in support for the two main parties bear out what he's seeing on the ground.

He commented: "People are starting to realize the two major parties aren't really that different. Neither is based on principle. They are like little kids fighting in a sandbox to get control. Anyone following politics for any length of time can see this same failed approach is tearing our county apart.

"People are looking for reasonable alternatives. I'm pulling support from both major parties because I am not attempting to promote my personal views. I respect the rights of people to run their own lives however they peacefully prefer. For the first time in a generation, people are finally more open-minded to a different approach."

Uncommon Knowledge

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

About the writer


James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more

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