Mike Johnson on Shaky Ground After House Vote Disaster

Speaker Mike Johnson is facing increased difficulty leading the House of Representatives, after losing two votes in one night on Tuesday and facing public challenges from members of his own party.

His attempt to impeach the Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas over the immigration situation at the southern border fell narrowly short, despite Republicans holding a majority in the House.

Then, a GOP-led bill to send further American aid to Israel—seen as an alternative to a bipartisan effort in the Senate that would also provide funding for Ukraine and immigration controls—was shot down by bipartisan opposition.

The latest failures presided over by Johnson have raised questions of whether his party would seek to oust him as they did with his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, last year. Johnson only became Speaker a little over three months ago, after House Republicans struggled to agree on who should take up the office.

Newsweek approached Johnson's office via email for comment on Wednesday.

Following the votes, Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie said getting rid of McCarthy "has officially turned into an unmitigated disaster," while challenging others to "name one thing that's improved under the new Speaker."

In January, Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene—who Johnson charged with leading the impeachment—told Politico she was unsure whether the Speaker was safe, adding that the "only reason he's Speaker is because our conference is so desperate," while House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik said the caucus was "sucking wind" under his stewardship.

However, others have suggested that Johnson was likely to remain Speaker until at least the election in November, the results of which would be used to judge whether he should remain in the post.

Pete Sessions, a representative for Texas and former National Republican Congressional Committee chair, told Politico: "It's up to him to win or lose. And if he loses, he will leave."

Thomas Gift, a professor of American political science at University College London, told Newsweek that the odds of a GOP mutiny ahead of the election were unlikely, "simply for the fact that Republicans don't want a repeat of the Kevin McCarthy fiasco."

He said that though the spate of recent losses for Johnson was "both embarrassing and unlikely to convince voters that his party is cable of mature governing," his speakership "is more secure than his record might suggest (or warrant) because his GOP colleagues know that the only thing worse than an ineffectual leader is throwing the House once again into turmoil.

"Keeping Republican Congressmembers in check is no easy task in the best of times, and it's clearly not the best of times."

These thoughts were echoed by Andrew Rudalevige, an author on American political institutions and Thomas Brackett Reed Professor of Government at Bowdoin College in Maine, provided Johnson could negotiate his way through upcoming budget talks.

"Opposing the immigration reforms they demanded; the sputtering attempt to pass stand-alone Israel aid and defund Ukraine (and Taiwan for that matter); the evidence-free impeachment inquiries—none of these efforts command a majority of the House, in some cases not even a majority of the majority," he told Newsweek. "The fundamental problem, of course, is the math—this job would be nearly impossible for anyone.

"Success would require independent standing, leadership experience, and exemplary bargaining skill; the good news for Johnson is that the last attempt to choose a Speaker didn't produce anyone with more of those attributes than Johnson himself."

Rudalevige added: "So I think he does survive as Speaker until November—with the caveat that actually passing a budget will require him to continue to build majorities across both party caucuses (as he's done in a few cases to bring up bills without going through the Rules Committee).

"That may trigger yet another revolt from those who have already shown (since we're talking about 'Succession' here) that '[they] are not serious people.'"

Johnson's reaction to the failure of the Mayorkas impeachment resolution was interpreted by some as angered by the defeat, while one congressional journalist said the Speaker bolted from the Capitol following the end of Tuesday's session, not stopping to speak to lobby reporters.

Johnson and other House Republicans have been criticized for their intransigence over the bipartisan Senate immigration package—which sought to provide $20 billion for more border enforcement agents and expedited asylum processes—because it fell short of their aims.

Johnson said that the border deal would be "dead on arrival" in a January 26 letter to GOP colleagues and, after the text was made public, described it as "even worse than we expected, and won't come close to ending the border catastrophe the president has created."

Instead, he proposed to give Israel $17.6 billion in military aid, doing away with President Joe Biden's request for further funding for Ukraine as it continues to fend off a Russian invasion.

That bill received 250 votes to 180, but fell short of the two-thirds majority it needed. The measure was opposed by 166 Democrats and 14 Republicans, with the latter citing a lack of savings in the federal budget to offset the fresh spending.

"The impression that Johnson is subservient to the loudest, Trumpiest voices in his caucus—indeed, to Trump himself—is only fortified by this week's sequence of events," Rudalevige commented. Johnson has said the former president was not calling the shots, after Trump urged congressional Republicans against accepting anything less than a "perfect" border deal before the general election in November.

"Obviously none of this helps Republicans hold the House, even if Trump does return to the presidency. People in swing districts are going to continue to be forced to take hard votes defending Trump and reminding swing voters about his least palatable actions," Rudalevige added.