The Grim Implication of Speaker Mike Johnson's Ukraine Pivot

House Speaker Mike Johnson finally bowed to months of intense pressure this weekend, breaking with the majority of his House Republican colleagues to allow a vote on the $95-billion foreign military aid package that will provide some $61 billion for Ukraine. The move will potentially further weaken his position in Congress, which has come under repeated attack from MAGA representatives.

The vote passed 311-112, with all 112 votes against coming from Republicans. Only 101 on the GOP side voted in favor, meaning Johnson relied on his Democratic opponents to pass the package that had stalled for so long.

Johnson's U-turn came after months of pressure domestically and abroad. In March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with the speaker by phone to stress that the "quick passage of U.S. aid to Ukraine by Congress is vital."

Ukrainian forces are under intense pressure all along the front, and have been forced to abandon hard-fought positions in the east of the country due to a lack of defensive munitions, and particularly of advanced Western weapons.

The speaker had already set out a bleak vision for Ukraine without the resumption of American aid, despite his own block on that assistance for several months. Russia, China, and Iran, he warned, pose "a global threat to our prosperity and our security. Their advance threatens the free world, and it demands American leadership. [If] we turn our backs right now, the consequences could be devastating."

Such concerns were reportedly piqued by classified intelligence briefings, including a recent one from CIA Director Bill Burns. CNN reported—citing multiple anonymous sources with knowledge of the situation—that Burns' briefing left "a lasting impression."

Newsweek has contacted the speaker's office by email to request comment.

The troubling implication from Burns' briefing is that the battlefield situation for Ukraine has become more dire than Johnson previously realized. The director has warned publicly that Kyiv could lose its war by the end of 2024 without increased aid.

The speaker has also been meeting with Ukrainians in Washington D.C. Conversations with evangelicals in particular "moved" the speaker—who is deeply religious—according to Melinda Haring of the Atlantic Council think tank.

Steven Moore—once a chief of staff for former Rep. Peter Roskam, the former chief deputy GOP whip—told Newsweek that Johnson's recent meeting with Ukrainian evangelical leader and former member of parliament Pavlo Unguryan was especially influential.

"The speaker was very moved," said Moore, who is now running the Ukraine Freedom Project and the Russia Tortures Christians project, the latter seeking to bring attention to the abuses of the Russian military and security services on Christian communities in occupied Ukraine.

"I believe it was a very personal thing for him, where he understood this on on a very personal and very spiritual level. And I think that's what pushed us over the line."

Another personal factor appeared to be the recent acceptance of Johnson's eldest son to the Naval Academy. "To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys," Johnson told reporters last week. "My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me as it is [for] so many American families. This is not a game, this is not a joke."

The Senate and President Joe Biden are expected to move quickly in approving the measures in the coming days. Senate Intelligence Committee Chairperson Sen. Mark Warner has said that new American weapons could be in transit to Ukraine "by the end of the week."

Zelensky was quick to express his thanks, saying American lawmakers had moved to keep "history on the right track." In a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, he added: "The vital U.S. aid bill passed today by the House will keep the war from expanding, save thousands and thousands of lives, and help both of our nations to become stronger."

The package's passing may be welcome in Kyiv, but it is not a silver bullet. "This funding can probably only help stabilize the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025," Matthew Savill of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London told Newsweek.

"The boost to morale and more ammunition to strengthen their defenses are necessary pre-conditions for the hard work to begin reconstituting Ukrainian combat forces and—critically—collective training to build a force that stands a chance of making progress next year."

"Predictability of funding through 2024 and into 2025 will help the Ukrainians plan the defense this year, especially if European supplies of ammunition also come through, but further planning and funds will be required for 2025, and we have a U.S. election between now and then."

Johnson was already facing a potential leadership challenge from the right, and his decision to allow the vote may fatally undermine his relations with the MAGA—the acronym for the isolationist "Make America Great Again" slogan popularized by former President Donald Trump—wing of the party, which in recent years has grown in influence and confidence.

"He is absolutely working for the Democrats," Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, one of the most vocal and extreme members of the insurgent "MAGA squad" said after the vote. "Mike Johnson's speakership is over. He needs to do the right thing to resign and allow us to move forward in a controlled process."

But anger from the MAGA rank-and-file comes second to Trump himself. The former president has recently toned down his criticism of Ukraine and American support for Kyiv, which may have given Johnson the breathing room he needed to get the funding package over the line.

"My guess is that Trump has changed his position because blocking support of Ukraine through his supporters in the House became too risky for his reputation in the presidential campaign," Oleksandr Merezhko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament the chair of the body's foreign affairs committee, told Newsweek.

"He realized that if the aid remains blocked in the House because of his followers, he might bear moral and political responsibility if Ukraine fails. I think that without Trump's endorsement it would be hard to unblock the aid."

Some $10 billion of the funding package is in the forms of repayable loans, rather than grants, an arrangement Trump has pressed for in recent months. Sen. Lindsey Graham linked the former president's push for loans with the success of the funding package. "This would not have passed without President Trump," he said this weekend.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump campaign by email to request comment.

As for Johnson, Merezhko said the explanation could be moral or political; or both. "Speaker Johnson didn't want to go down in history as a person who could help Ukraine in crucial time, but failed," he said.

"As for political side, Trump's critics could have said: 'Look, he has not become the president yet and is already causing damage to the foreign policy and interests of the U.S."