Nuclear War 'Doomsday' Clock Has Changed, Russian Physicist Says

A Russian physicist has proposed moving the Doomsday Clock away from midnight, citing the global community's forceful reaction in opposition to Russian nuclear threats following its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow-trained physicist Pavel Podvig, who in 1995 headed the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces Research Project, wrote a piece published Thursday in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that the symbolic clock that measures cataclysmic fears and cautions of worldwide demise should be dialed down to reflect the strong global response to Russian rhetoric.

On January 24, the Chicago-based nonprofit Atomic Scientists—composed of experts in the fields of nuclear risk, climate change, disruptive technologies and bioterrorism—moved the clock closer to midnight based on perceived nuclear tensions. The change to 90 seconds from 100 seconds represented the "closest to global catastrophe it has ever been."

Moving the clock 10 seconds closer to midnight was "largely, though not exclusively, because of the mounting dangers in the war in Ukraine," the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists explained at the time.

Prior to January, the clock remained at 100 seconds to midnight since 2020.

In his piece, Podvig said the decision was correct at the time, writing that Russia "brought the nuclear risk to an entirely new level" with its invasion of Ukraine, which instantly garnered global attention and escalated fears of another World War.

He said Russia was responsible for keeping such fears in the mainstream, based on both rhetoric and policy decisions—such as its suspended participation in the Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, also known as the New START treaty.

Podvig, formerly on that science and security board, told Newsweek via email that he understands the skepticism associated with the Clock and its relevance. He also points to it as one of the few widely global symbols that sparks discussion.

"People know about it and talk about it, if only to say that it is outdated and should be scrapped," Podvig said. "The hard question is, how one can use that recognition to say something useful and something that resonates with people.

"My piece was an attempt to do so. Using the clock helped bring attention to my argument. I do believe that if the board sets the clock back it will bring even more attention to it. But one can never be certain if the message is clear, whether it reaches the audience, etc. We can try, though."

In 2011, Russia and the United States agreed to a 10-year commitment that neither nation be allowed to deploy more than 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads. The agreement was extended an additional five years in 2021, though Russian President Vladimir Putin announced this past February that his nation's involvement was being put on hold.

Russia and the U.S. possess roughly 90 percent of the total global nuclear stockpile.

"From the very first day of the war, Russia made no secret of counting on its nuclear weapons to ensure that nobody would come to Ukraine's rescue," Podvig wrote. "Western countries have offered massive help to Ukraine anyway, making the prospect of a direct confrontation with Russia more real than it has been for decades. The Clock had to reflect this development."

But he now suggests, over 20 months into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, that the clock should again be moved back. He cites the strong response in opposition, not only by national bureaucrats but also by the general public.

No response was arguably more ardent than that of the nations involved in composing a statement against Russian nuclear aggression in June 2022 as part of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons held in Vienna.

"We are alarmed and dismayed by threats to use nuclear weapons and increasingly strident nuclear rhetoric," reads the statement in part. "We stress that any use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is a violation of international law, including the Charter of the United Nations.

"We condemn unequivocally any and all nuclear threats, whether they be explicit or implicit and irrespective of the circumstances.

Though the statement never mentioned Russia by name, Podvig argues that its omission provided a universal stance not against just one country but against the general use of nuclear weapons as a whole.

Similar declarations followed, including G20 leaders meeting in November 2022 in Bali and collectively referring to "the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons [as] inadmissible."

Podvig says the threshold for the use of any nuclear weapons is high "and rightly so" as the biggest factor to its detriment is the global agreement that nuclear weapons' integral use is to kill people.

"To ensure that nuclear weapons are never used again, world leaders and the public should first recognize the role of the consolidated, universal opposition to nuclear threats, acknowledge this opposition, and make sure it endures," he said.

"The Doomsday Clock is well positioned to do so. By moving its hands backward the next time it is set, even if a little, this message can be sent clearly and forcefully."

Also on Thursday, the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that it had begun its annual deliberations about setting the new time of the Doomsday clock, set to be unveiled on January 23, 2024.

"The goal of highlighting global threats is to combat them," Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said in a statement. "That's how we put time back on the clock. Fear is the most natural human reaction when we start talking about the factors that threaten our very existence.

"But we're focused on hope and action. In the past we've moved the Doomsday Clock all the way back to 17 minutes to midnight. By identifying and understanding the problems, the world can align to create solutions again."

Update 11/13/23, 8:07 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Podvig.