After Putin's War, China's Xi Could Move Next, Warns NATO Chief

With Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine approaching its second anniversary, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned Taiwan could be next.

While Russia currently poses the "most immediate" challenge to the world order, China is "the biggest long-term challenge NATO allies face, and therefore we need to address it," the former Norwegian prime minister said in a speech at conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday.

Newsweek reached out to the Chinese embassy in Washington, D.C., with a written request for comment.

Stoltenberg's visit to Washington comes against a backdrop of conflict in various regions, from Ukraine to the Middle East to Myanmar. In the Taiwan Strait, the Kremlin's ally Beijing continues to pile military, political and economic pressure on Taipei, which it views as a rogue province and has vowed to unify with by any means necessary.

Stressing the importance of supporting Ukraine, he cautioned that if Russia's aggression goes unchecked, "others will learn the lesson that using force against America's interests works."

"China is watching closely," he warned. "It is Ukraine today. Taiwan could be tomorrow."

Stoltenberg pointed out China's rapid military modernization, lack of transparency, alleged unfair trade practices, aggression to neighbors, "particularly Taiwan," and efforts to dominate the South China Sea.

Washington cannot manage the "China challenge alone," he said but added: "And you don't have to."

Underscoring the collective strength of the 31-member military alliance, he cited NATO's extensive intelligence networks, modern armed forces and combined economic clout. He also pointed out that over the past few years most members states are either meeting or close to meeting the NATO requirement that they spend the equivalent of 2 percent of their GDPs on defense.

"The U.S. alone represents a quarter of the world economy. But together, with NATO allies, we represent half of the world's economic might. And half of the world's military might," he said.

Stoltenberg then encouraged the U.S. to recognize the value of NATO, now entering its 75th year.

In a remark that seemed intended for NATO skeptics in the U.S., he cited the alliance's substantial contributions to the U.S. defense industry and to American jobs. NATO members have ordered $120 billion in weapons over the past two years, including thousands of missiles, hundreds of Abrams tanks, and hundreds of F-35 combat aircraft, he said.

In an era of great power rivalry, NATO's unity gives the U.S. a strategic advantage China and Russia lack, he said.

The 2022 invasion of Ukraine quickly drew comparisons with Taiwan, with both countries living in the shadow of revanchist powers.

Taiwan benefits from the protection of the Taiwan Strait, whose often rough conditions may offer only two brief windows each year for an amphibious invasion. However, being surrounded by water would also make it more difficult to resupply in a conflict than Ukraine.

Washington is Taiwan's main arms supplier and its strongest international supporter.

Although the U.S., like most countries, doesn't recognize Taiwan diplomatically, it remains Taipei's most important security guarantor. Washington's long-running policy of "strategic ambiguity" is geared to leave open the possibility of an American military response to a future attack on Taiwan by China's People's Liberation Army.