NATO Must 'Wake Up' to Putin's Trap, Russia's Neighbor Warns

Ukraine and its Western partners have had a difficult winter. Russian troops are on the advance, Ukrainian arsenals are fast emptying, and Russian President Vladimir Putin appears laser-focused on continuing a decade of war between the "brotherly nations."

Gathered at the Munich Security Conference in southern Germany this weekend, the mood among Western leaders was notably subdued. The elation of Ukraine's survival and subsequent battlefield victories of 2022 are now distant in the rearview mirror. Ahead lies an open-ended bloody conflict, in which a Ukrainian victory—as set out by Kyiv—appears increasingly ambitious.

Still, on NATO's eastern frontier, leaders remain resolute. "When you start to believe you have lost, you really have lost," Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina told Newsweek in an exclusive interview on the sidelines of the Munich gathering. "We cannot fall into a trap of starting to believe that we have lost."

"What's the option then? Will you be joining Russia? Definitely not. So, wake up, get up from the couch and start doing the best you can do for your country and for yourself."

Lativa, like its fellow Baltic neighbors, has been in the vanguard of pushing for greater aid for Ukraine and harsher measures on Russia. Latvia has donated more than 1 percent of its GDP to assist Ukraine's defense, and Riga is also among the top NATO military spending in GDP terms.

On the diplomatic front, Latvian officials have been relentless in their push for Ukrainian Euro-Atlantic integration and the further isolation of Russia's economy from Western goods and markets.

Longtime Latvian—and wider Baltic—skepticism towards European-Russian cooperation has been vindicated by the Kremlin's war on Ukraine. The lessons of Eastern European history are on show in Ukraine. Silina is urging her allies to pay attention.

"Such a regime as Putin's regime, he is using our own values against us, our own tools against us, our own international treaties against us," she said. "They know it's our weakness."

"We have to remember that we are policy makers, we can change our rules, but still remain true to the same values. It is very important to remember that."

For those along Russian borders, the continued threat from Moscow's troops is real. "We have been living through hybrid threats for two years already through our borders," the prime minister said. "Massive migrations have been pushed over as hybrid attacks from Belarus, and from Russia."

"We have built a fence along the border with Belarus, and it's also an external border for the European Union. And we are building a fence with Russia, it's also an external border for Europe. And if we will not do those things, probably it will be a problem for France, and the U.K., and Germany."

"We are the front runners, we are at the front line," Silina said. Other NATO allies are warning that the alliance faces a resurgent Russian military threat within less than a decade, despite Moscow's mauling in Ukraine.

"I cannot say there is a three- or five-year timeline for the threat, but we understand," Silina said to those warnings. "We see Ukraine winning. But yes, after this, Russia will again gain capabilities to attack someone else. And it could be five years, it could be three years, it depends which tools they will decide to use."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry by email to request comment.

Decision Time in the West

The untimely death of Russian political prisoner Alexei Navalny infused the Munich gathering with fresh anxiety. Condemnation of Putin was quick, but Western leaders are still mulling their retaliation.

Asked how allies should respond, Silina said, "By sending more help to Ukraine, by giving an opportunity to free Russian journalists to speak out here abroad. For example, Latvia is a hub of exiled Russian journalists, who spoke differently than the regime and they can send the message to Russian people as well."

Most important, she said, is weapons for Kyiv, "and not just for them to survive, but to win; that's a big difference, that's a big shift of paradigm."

"We really need to help them more. And also, not just militarily and politically, but also they have issues with trade and economic issues. We need to give them opportunities to grow and to live normal lives as well, in the regions where there are no war zones."

Putin intended the February 2022 full-scale invasion as a sprint. That ambition was left among heaps of burned and twisted Russian metal on the road to Kyiv. Now, the Kremlin has shifted to a marathon footing. The onus is on the West to match it, a task NATO and the EU have largely failed to accomplish in decades of simmering confrontation with Moscow.

"Yes, maybe some in the West are trying to grasp what could be a diplomatic solution and then trying to catch up to that solution with Putin," Silina said when asked about rumblings of new peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv.

"There will be no such diplomatic solution with Putin. So, I can only agree with Ukrainians. It's their house, it's their homeland, it's their sovereign territory, and only they can decide."

Tighter sanctions, Silina said, remain a worthy Western ambition. The EU and G7 sanctions on Russia are unprecedented, but Moscow has proven its ability to survive them. The Kremlin is being helped by an extensive sanctions-busting operation by which a variety of third countries are acting as conduits for dual-use technologies.

Even in the Baltics, which have been among the most hawkish, sanctions enforcement is a problem. Politico reported this month that the Baltic region has become "a prime destination" for those seeking to circumvent sanctions.

"We are very serious about the sanctions," Silina said when asked about the problem. "We still have only some points open with Russia and Belarus for transit because there is this united European agreement with third countries to provide food for them. But yes, it would be much easier for us just to close everything. But then we need a common European decision for that. And we don't have it."

"It's really, really difficult for countries like us to manage all the big border line with Russia," Silina added.

'Don't Be Too Late'

The coming year will pose a myriad of challenges to NATO. First, the alliance must choose its next leader. Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte appears in poll position to succeed Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, though not everyone is pleased by the prospect of a Western European leader whose country has consistently failed to hit its NATO spending obligations.

"Central and Eastern Europe has to be satisfied with the leader NATO chooses, because this person should represent our interests as well, and has to understand the real risks we are facing every day," Silina said.

"They have to understand not just theoretically, they really have to understand what it means to find a solution politically to spend 2 percent—and even more—on your defense."

The July Washington, D.C. summit will again be an opportunity for the alliance to express its support for Kyiv and trumpet its progress in meeting the Russian threat. But it will also act as a spotlight on alliance tensions over Ukraine's proposed future membership.

"Ukraine understands very well the schedule, and they're ready to be in," Silina said. "I understand that they also are ready to start all the proceedings which are necessary for enlargement within Europe. And we will be supporters for them. But I also understand that we will need to build up a very stable base for them to go forward because it is also important to give them the time needed."

Estonia is among those pushing for NATO to formally increase its 2 percent of GDP spending target. Latvia, Silina said, will "lead by example" in surpassing the expenditure goal that has proved so problematic for allies.

"We will keep doing our good job," she said. "We will keep spreading the message, 'Don't be too late, learn from the lessons others are giving you for free.' Otherwise, you will have to pay a price much higher than you are willing to pay now."

The Kremlin will be running a very different leadership contest in March. Putin is sure to win, but the elaborate electoral theater has practical significance for some NATO states.

The Baltic nations are coordinating their position on the elections, in which Moscow is demanding that Russian citizens living there will be able to participate via polling stations at embassies.

"The upcoming presidential 'elections' in Russia will be neither free nor fair," the Latvian, Estonian, and Lithuanian foreign ministries said in a joint statement this week. "In the environment of total crackdown on opposition and independent media, with lack of credible alternative candidates and without the international monitoring, these elections will lack any democratic legitimacy."

"Meanwhile we confirm that Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania continue to respect our international obligations to ensure the security of diplomatic missions and their staff in our countries, and will continue doing so."

The elections will include "voting" in the occupied territories of Ukraine, something Silina said Riga will always "condemn." On the home front, the prime minister said Latvia and other nations must be wary.

"It's a big opportunity for propaganda, again, to work loudly," she said. "So, we will work on our own people's security during those elections. But we will see, we will have some security measures as well."