Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away, leaving little time for NCAA Tournament hopefuls to best position themselves for a spot in the 68-team field.
At this point in the season, the arrival of a new Associated Press Poll—which Houston topped in Monday's latest edition, for what it's worth—may be inconsequential compared to the latest round of bracketology projections. And as the regular season winds down and conference tournaments approach, these predictions offer a glimpse at the March Madness picture, including the teams on the very fringe of it.
Some programs on the tournament bubble have helped make their case for inclusion of late, while others are seeing their shot fade away. Here's a look at three men's teams on the March Madness rise, plus three that need to figure something out.
March Madness Bubble Teams on the Rise
Iowa (18-12, NET No. 57)
Fran McCaffery's Hawkeyes are playing their best at the most crucial time of the college basketball year. Iowa, fresh off an 87-80 Quad 1 win at Northwestern on Saturday, has won four of its last five games overall to make a play for an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. The owner of KenPom's 11th-ranked adjusted offense has gone from completely out of the bracket picture as recently as a few weeks ago to a spot among the "first four out" on ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's latest projections released Monday. Iowa can boost its stock even more by upsetting No. 12 Illinois at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Sunday in its regular-season finale.
— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) March 4, 2024
Drake (25-6, NET No. 48)
Another team from Iowa, another March Madness hopeful. The Bulldogs have only lost once in their eight games. However, perhaps because of its status as a mid-major, Drake's love in some metrics isn't matched in every bracket projection. Drake ranks 48th in Monday's NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) listing with a 3-1 Quad 1 record—plus is 49th in BartTorvik and 55th in KenPom. Many teams in similar territory are closer to tournament certainties in many projections. Northwestern, for example, is NET No. 53 though a projected eight- and 10-seed in recent predictions from ESPN and CBS Sports, while Drake isn't even mentioned among bubble teams by the latter. Still, the Des Moines-based team appears to be gaining ground. Drake has steadily climbed into a "next four out" spot, per Lunardi. And The Athletic had the Bulldogs as the last at-large qualifier in the field last week. But winning a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament title, securing an auto-bid in the process, is still the safest bet for Drake to make the dance.
Villanova (17-12, NET No. 26)
Over the last few days, Villanova has gone from one of the first teams out of the tournament field—per ESPN—to one of the "last four in," and as of Monday took conference rival Seton Hall's spot among the "last four byes." The Wildcats snapped a seven-game losing streak in Quad 1 matchups, per USA Today, by beating Providence 71-60 on the road Saturday. Less than a month ago, the team was just 12-11. Things are looking up, at least for now. With a road matchup with Seton Hall on Wednesday and a home game against No. 10 Creighton to follow Saturday, Villanova enters a regular-season-ending stretch with plenty of opportunities to improve (or tank) its position. So, either way—up or down—the Wildcats could be out of the bubble soon enough.
March Madness Bubble Teams Nearing Trouble
Providence (18-11, NET No. 62)
And speaking of Providence, the Friars were among the "last four in" by a variety of projections (including USA Today and ESPN) late last week. But after the weekend's loss, they appear to be on the outside looking in. Lunardi has Providence down to "first four out" as of Monday, while CBS Sports' Jerry Palm described the team's path to a tournament bid as "pretty rocky" in a Sunday write-up. The Friars dropped to 8-11 against the top-three quadrants, and Palm said no at-large team has ever been three games below .500 against that group of teams.
Michigan State (17-12, NET No. 22)
Gonzaga, once thought to be in danger of missing March Madness, has since all but ensured its lengthy NCAA Tournament streak will continue. But can the same be said for Michigan State? Tom Izzo's Spartans fell 80-74 on the road to No. 2 Purdue on Saturday—not a bad loss at all, but the continuation of a recent dip in East Lansing. Michigan State, participants in the last 25 consecutive NCAA tournaments, has now lost three games in a row. The Spartans are still in the field per most projections, though a spot is not nearly as locked up as it might have seemed only a few weeks ago. The Athletic has MSU as one of the "last four byes." The Big Ten's March mainstay continues to be an analytics darling—ranking in the top-20 in NET, KenPom and BartTorvik—despite its recent struggles and a 4-8 Quad 1 record.
Virginia (21-9, NET No. 49)
No offense to Virginia, but—actually, no offense just about sums it up. The Cavaliers scored just 48 points in their Saturday loss at No. 10 Duke. Coach Tony Bennett's team has dropped four of its last six by double-digits, and a tournament spot is no guarantee as March tips off. Virginia is firmly on the tournament bubble ahead of its regular-season finale against Georgia Tech Saturday. Lunardi has mostly had the Cavaliers hanging around "last four byes" territory lately, though has the team down to "last four in" on Monday—the same place The Athletic placed them on Friday.
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
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Robert Read is a Sports Reporter at Newsweek based in Florida. He previously spent four years working at The Daily ... Read more
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