How a Republican State Could Cost Donald Trump the Election

Nebraska, a state Republican state, could cost former president Donald Trump the 2024 election against President Joe Biden, according to a conservative.

On March 12, Biden and Trump each won a series of primary elections to become their party's presumptive presidential nominees. This focused attention on how the likely presidential election between the two rivals would play out.

While Biden's approval rating and policies related to inflation, crime, immigration and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza have drawn consistent scrutiny from conservatives, the incumbent president has had a surge in recent polls. Eight separate polls published in March showed promising numbers for Biden, including leads or stalemates in consequential battleground states including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The polls give Biden a slight lead on a national basis ranging from one to three points, though it isn't clear if it would give him an overall victory due to the Electoral College.

With the 2024 presidential election fast approaching, some have taken to X, formerly Twitter, to talk about the possibility of either Biden or Trump winning.

Charlie Kirk, founder and president of conservative organization Turning Point USA, warned on X that Nebraska could cost Trump the election due to the state's use of the congressional district method.

"Suppose Donald Trump flips Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada next fall, as current polls all show him doing. Would he win the presidency? Not quite. In fact, if Trump flips those three states and no others, he loses by exactly ONE electoral vote. Why? Nebraska," Kirk wrote on X.

"Despite being one of the most Republican states, Nebraska awards its electoral votes by Congressional district instead of winner-take-all. Thanks to this system, Omaha's electoral vote leans blue: Obama won it in 2008, and Biden won it in 2020. He's likely to win it again this year," Kirk added.

In all but two states, Maine and Nebraska, electoral votes are winner-take-all as the candidate winning the popular vote normally receives all of that state's votes. However, Maine and Nebraska use the congressional district method, which allows them to allocate two electoral votes to the state popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each congressional district.

This allows the congressional swing district in the Omaha metro area a single vote that Democrats have won twice since 1991, in 2008 by Barack Obama and in 2020 by Biden.

Newsweek has reached out to Trump's and Biden's campaign via email for comment.

Biden won Nebraska's 2nd District by 6.5 percentage points in 2020, a bit more than his national margin of 4.5 points.

While candidates need 270 electoral votes to win, under a scenario where Biden only wins the three northern swing states and the other uncontested blue states, a loss in Nebraska's 2nd District could result in a 269-269 tie.

While it is unclear if Biden's campaign will be focusing on Nebraska's 2nd district, his campaign previously said they were being "strategic."

"At this stage in the race, we're being strategic about keeping multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes," Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said in a statement to the Washington Post. "Since the President was elected in 2020, we've made significant and ongoing investments in state parties and on-the-ground infrastructure."

Meanwhile, Taylor Budowich, the chief executive of the main Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., said his organization is looking broadly for 2024, according to the Washington Post.

"Every electoral vote is in play because there isn't a voter in America who is better off today than they were under President Trump," Budowich told the Post.

Kirk's comments as the Nebraska will hold its statewide primary elections on Tuesday, May 14.