New York Flash Flood Map Shows Areas Most at Risk

A portion of New York City is under a flash flood warning through the early hours of Friday morning as it faces heavy rains from a coastal storm.

The National Weather Service (NWS) issued the alert for the boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens, as well as the town of Hempstead, on nearby Long Island, which have an estimated combined population of nearly 4.6 million people—until at least 8:15 a.m. ET, urging residents to "immediately" seek higher ground.

The surrounding areas, including those in New Jersey and Connecticut, are under flood watches or advisories, suggesting minor levels of flooding are possible.

In the latest forecast discussion, the NWS station in New York City said models gave a "strong signal" of between two and five inches of rain over a large area, with localized pockets reaching up to seven inches.

NYC flash flood warning
A map showing the area of New York under a flash flood warning, denoted in dark red, until 8:15 a.m. ET on September 29, 2023. It includes the NYC boroughs of Queens and Brooklyn as... NWS

It expressed uncertainty as to where exactly the heaviest rainfall would occur, suggesting it could be anywhere from southwest Connecticut to the New York City metro area. In these areas, the NWS said there was a 30 percent chance an inch could fall an hour.

Meteorologists at Fox Weather suggested the intense rains were the combined effect of the remnants of tropical storm Ophelia, which powered up the East Coast last weekend, and tides exacerbated by the final supermoon of the year, when the natural satellite is closest in its orbit to Earth, having a stronger gravitational effect on the sea.

"We've basically got a couple of different players here coming together," in-house meteorologist Amy Freeze said. "The ghost of Ophelia and the Supermoon join for a complex situation, a one-two punch of saltwater flooding and now the potential for freshwater flooding."

Newsweek reached out to the NWS in New York City via email for comment.

The flash flooding is expected to occur just as the city that never sleeps is waking up to begin the Friday morning commute, posing the potential for disruption for transport systems. Some 25 million people are in the tri-state area impacted, CNN reported, citing official warnings.

"We urge New Yorkers to prepare for heavy rain and potential flooding throughout Friday and Saturday morning," New York City Emergency Management Commissioner Zach Iscol said in a statement on Thursday.

"All New Yorkers need to exercise caution," he added. "If you must travel, consider using public transportation and allow for extra travel time, and if you must drive, do not enter flooded roadways."

Tri-state area rainfall
A map showing expected rainfall levels across the tri-state area between 8 p.m. ET on September 28 to 8 a.m. ET on September 30. Orange denotes areas where up to six inches could fall in... NWS

On Friday morning, Iscol's agency warned that "the excessive rain may result in flooding of places that do not normally flood." The city's Metropolitan Transportation Authority told commuters on Thursday evening that there would be "especially heavy rainfall during the AM rush hour."

When Ophelia made landfall on Saturday, it brought winds of up to 70 miles an hour and flooding to coastal regions, dumping a month's worth of rain on the Carolinas in a matter of hours. The impacts caused Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin to declare a state of emergency.

At the time, AccuWeather meteorologist Isaac Longley told Newsweek: "The main impacts from Ophelia going forward will be heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding, strong, gusty winds which can bring down trees and power lines, and dangerous storm surge along the mid-Atlantic coast."

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About the writer


Aleks Phillips is a Newsweek U.S. News Reporter based in London. His focus is on U.S. politics and the environment. ... Read more

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