NFL Black Monday: Which Coaches Are on the Chopping Block?

In the NFL, Sundays usually reign supreme. The majority of games take place that day, and Super Bowl Sunday looms large on the sports calendar. But as the regular season comes to a close, there's another day on the horizon: Black Monday.

As the name indicates, that's not exactly a day for good news and celebrations. Instead, it's the time when coaches (and front-office executives) pay the price for their in-season failures.

And since we're standing on the cusp of Week 18, that means the day of reckoning is nearly here. With that in mind, let's break down this year's Black Monday and the coaches who are most at risk.

What Is Black Monday?

In world history, there have been plenty of Black Mondays. In NFL circles, however, the unfortunate day arrives every year on the Monday after the final weekend of regular season games.

On that day, coaches of underperforming teams usually get the axe. While nothing is set in stone, the underlying logic is that many teams are hesitant to make a major change during the season. Once the campaign is officially over, there's no longer any reason to wait. Cutting the cord as soon as possible also lets the club start the process of finding a replacement, although the playoff engagements of candidates can slow things down.

But how did the term "Black Monday" get applied to football? There are breadcrumbs out there, but no one is quite sure.

"Even with an extensive search of news databases, it is difficult to determine who coined the phrase Black Monday, which the N.F.L. does not endorse," a New York Times write-up explained. "Some of the earliest references were in the late 1990s, including a story in The Chicago Tribune about several college coaches being fired at one time. In 1998, The Associated Press ran an article with the headline 'Black Monday for N.F.L. coaches.' The story began: 'The next time a group of N.F.L. coaches gets together and someone says 'Black Monday,' nobody should ask him what he's talking about.'

"The New York Post and The Houston Chronicle also used Black Monday in their headlines that day."

Which Coaches Are on the 2024 Chopping Block?

While part of the Black Monday mythos is that the writing is on the wall and coaches are just waiting for the axe to drop, 2024 doesn't feature too many lame ducks. There have already been some coaching changes, and many other candidates have stabilized their squads.

Ron Rivera, however, looks like he's on the way out.

While the bench boss was tapped to turn Washington around, the results haven't really materialized. He's posted a 26-39-1 record since moving to the nation's capital, and the team hasn't improved. Add a new ownership group into the mix—those in charge tend to want their own people running things—and it seems like the writing is on the wall.

The Falcons' Arthur Smith could also be on the way out, although his situation is a bit murkier. The results haven't been awful (a Week 18 loss would leave the team at 7-10 for a third straight season), but the lack of overall improvement is concerning. While you could contend that the lack of good quarterback play is a non-starter, the coach will usually pay the price for consistent struggles.

Things, however, aren't set in stone. Owner Arthur Blank said that he was committed to the current head coach, but also suggested that he'd let the season play out and take things from there. Well, Week 17 saw an ugly loss to the Bears. Maybe the bench boss is coaching for his job in the season finale?

And then there's Mike Vrabel, who has seen his Titans crumble. With Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill both getting older and looking more and more human, Tennessee is staring down another double-digit stack of losses.

Has the coach's previous success—he finished above .500 during his first four seasons in charge, including an 11-win and 12-win campaign—enough to earn him the benefit of the doubt? Or, if you need to rebuild the team's offensive nucleus, is that the natural time to completely clear the decks?

Some At-Risk Coaches Will Probably Survive

Black Monday is mainly about firing, but there are always a few coaches who dodge a bullet. This year, it seems like Robert Saleh and Matt Eberflus will probably be among the lucky survivors.

For the former man, the case is clear. The Jets had hitched their wagon to Aaron Rodgers, and things crumbled when he got hurt minutes into the season. Could Saleh have managed things a bit better? Probably, especially when it came to his management of Zach Wilson. With that being said, though, it would be incredibly harsh to fire him on the back of what was essentially a lost season.

Should the Jets flounder in 2024, though, expect that patience to run out.

Elsewhere in the NFL, Eberflus looked like a dead man walking earlier in the year. His Bears sunk as low as 3-8, but the worm eventually turned. Since their Week 13 bye, Chicago has actually gone 3-1, with their one loss coming by three points; the club is currently sitting in third place in the division at a tolerable 7-9. At the risk of trotting out a cliché, that turnaround suggests that the players have their coach's back, and that has to count for something.

It's also worth considering where the Bears stand as a franchise. With the first-overall pick on the horizon and a decision to be made at quarterback, maybe there's something to be said for incremental change. Perhaps Eberflus gets another season at the helm and, if things stagnate, someone else can come in to guide the group to another level.

And while he's receiving less Black Monday hype than his fellow New York coach, Brian Daboll could also be in this category. He showed great potential during his first year calling the shots, and it would be foolish to cut the cord after a tough, injury-plagued season.

Bill Belichick Is His Own Black Monday Mystery

There was a time when talk of firing Bill Belichick would have been immediately met with laughter. These days, though, that prospect seems a bit more realistic.

For all of the living legend's success, 2023 wasn't a good year. The Patriots fell flat, and their roster was exposed as simply not being good enough. Mac Jones didn't look like the answer under center, either, suggesting that turning things around will take larger-scale surgery.

And while you could assert that's all outside of Belichick's purview, there's a problem: he's both the coach and the club's general manager. And if you believe that the Pats are being hamstrung by an overall lack of talent, that has to fall at the living legend's feet.

So, how do you solve the problem? That's the multimillion-dollar question.

It would be one thing to keep Belichick as a coach while removing some personnel duties, but it's unclear if he'd accept that arrangement. A straight-up firing also seems unlikely. Not only would it be a massive public relations endeavor, but Belichick is an asset in his own right. If you want to part ways, why not trade him and at least recoup a draft pick?

Alternatively, maybe the coach is the one who wants to try something new. After spending decades in New England, it's easy to imagine the allude of taking another team (ideally one with a plug-and-play) quarterback to the top of the mountain. Or maybe it's simply time to retire after an iconic career.

Given the magnitude of this decision, we might not even get an answer on Black Monday. But it's possible we'll get some clarity, whether that's in the form of insider rumors or the stars aligning for a potential move away from Foxborough.