Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley defeated former President Donald Trump for the first time in the Republican primary cycle on Sunday, though the victory in Washington, D.C., should have little effect if any on upcoming elections, according to several recent polls.
Haley, the former United Nations (U.N.) ambassador, defeated GOP frontrunner Trump on Sunday, 62.8 percent to 33.2 percent. It's the first time a woman won a GOP presidential primary, with Haley's campaign hoping it could provide some momentum heading into Super Tuesday, which is on March 5.
"Republicans closest to Washington's dysfunction know that Donald Trump has brought nothing but chaos and division for the past 8 years," Haley wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Sunday evening. "It's time to start winning again and move our nation forward!"
Newsweek reached out to the Haley campaign via email for comment.
But the former president, still on pace to be his party's nominee after recent victories in Michigan, Idaho and Missouri, wrote in a Truth Social post following Haley's victory that he "purposely" stayed away from the D.C. "swamp" due to the lack of delegates and political upside.
"Birdbrain spent all of her time, money and effort there," Trump wrote. "Over the weekend we won Missouri, Idaho, and Michigan—BIG NUMBERS—Complete destruction of a very weak opponent. The really big numbers will come on Super Tuesday. Also, WAY UP ON CROOKED JOE!"
Haley, meanwhile, was only rewarded 19 of the required 1,215 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination.
FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primary, last updated on Sunday, still shows Trump securing approximately 76.7 percent of GOP support, with Haley trailing far behind at 15.1 percent.
Meanwhile, other recent polls conducted before the Washington, D.C., primary show the former president leading Haley by massive margins, including:
- A 57-point lead in The New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between February 25 and 28.
- A 67-point lead in a HarrisX/Forbes poll conducted between February 24 and 28.
- A 68-point lead in a YouGov/The Economist poll conducted between February 25 and 27.
- A 63-point lead in a Morning Consult poll conducted between February 23 and 25.
A poll published on February 29 by the University of Texas at Tyler shows Trump with a 58-point advantage in the Lone Star State, while the ex-president also enjoys a 58-point advantage in California according to an Emerson College published the same day.
Those are just two of the 15 states that are voting on Super Tuesday. The other states are Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont and Virginia.
Haley's "favorability" among prospective GOP voters has declined the more she's critical of Trump, according to Morning Consult's poll. Such voters are now 7 points more likely to view her in a positive light rather than a negative one.
"While I don't think it's enough the move the needle much (if at all), it is something that she can point to as we move into Super Tuesday," Kirk Randazzo, a political science professor and department chair at the University of South Carolina, told Newsweek via email on Monday. "If nothing else, maybe it convinces additional people to donate to her campaign. With the Koch money leaving, she needs donations to keep her message alive."
Haley's motivation for staying in the race remains difficult to predict, he added, due to her long-term aspirations and potentially waiting for the GOP convention—or some outcomes in Trump's legal cases, most of which continue to be delayed.
Regardless, Randazzo expects Trump to win "handily" on Tuesday.
"If Haley stays in the race for as long as possible, and continues to accumulate delegates, then she has some influence over the convention," he said. "This could play out in any number of ways, from programming speakers to forcing the RNC [Republican National Committee] to actually adopt a written platform—which they did not do in 2020 and currently have no plans to develop. Bottom line is that if Haley has delegates in her pocket, then she remains a player during the convention rather than simply getting tossed aside."
Meanwhile, Haley told NBC News' Meet the Press host Kristen Welker on Sunday that she no longer feels bound by a party pledge to support Trump, should he ultimately be the party's nominee.
"I think I'll make what decision I want to make, but that's not something I'm thinking about," she said, adding that she's just thinking about upcoming elections.
She continues to campaign based on polls that show her as a more formidable Republican opponent to President Joe Biden. She posted a photo of a Fox News poll on X that shows her beating Biden by 8 percentage points in a hypothetical matchup, while Trump bests Biden by 2 points in the same poll.
"Same story, different day: today's Fox News' poll shows that I beat Biden in the general election by EIGHT POINTS," Haley wrote on Sunday. "Trump is up by two points, which is a statistical tie."
Update 03/04/24, 9:34 a.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Randazzo.
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Nick Mordowanec is a Newsweek reporter based in Michigan. His focus is reporting on Ukraine and Russia, along with social ... Read more
