A new poll delivered a warning sign to Republicans about their chances of winning the governorship in a state won by former President Donald Trump in 2020.
North Carolina's gubernatorial race is set to pit Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein against Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson against each other in November, making it one of 11 states holding an election for governor this year.
North Carolina is often viewed as a swing state with a slight conservative lean, as it backed Trump by 1.3 percentage points during the 2020 presidential election. It has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 10 of the last 11 elections.
But Republicans, who are hoping to pick up the governor's seat, may be poised for a loss in the race to replace Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in November, according to a flurry of recent polls showing Stein with an edge over Robinson.
The state gains some of its swing state status due to often electing a Democratic candidate to the governor's mansion. Seven of the last eight gubernatorial contests in the state have gone blue.
Robinson has attracted scrutiny during his tenure over remarks on cultural topics that have dominated political discourse in recent years.
For instance, Robinson, who is Black, has faced criticism for suggesting Black people could pay reparations amid calls from progressives for descendants of slaves to receive pay, according to The Fayetteville Observer. He has also been criticized over his past comments on the LGBTQ+ community, including saying in 2021: "There's no reason anybody anywhere in America should be telling any child about transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth."
A new Quinnipiac University poll showed Robinson trailing Stein by 8 percentage points.
The poll found 52 percent of respondents saying they planned to back Stein, while 44 percent said they would vote for Robinson. It surveyed 1,401 registered voters from April 4-8 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
Jeff Allen, Stein's campaign manager, responded to the poll in a statement to Newsweek.
"North Carolina is known for its razor-thin margins, and this campaign is working hard to earn every vote. North Carolinians have a clear choice in this race: Josh Stein fights for people to build a safer, stronger North Carolina, while Mark Robinson fights job-killing culture wars," he wrote.
Steven Greene, a professor of political science at North Carolina State University, told Newsweek on Thursday that Robinson's "extremely conservative" social positions contribute to him being a "bad candidate."
"That is being used against him and will continue to be used again him in this campaign," Greene said. "Not to say he cannot win, but there's no reason to think that's a good recipe for winning statewide election in North Carolina."
Greene described Stein as a "solid, capable and experienced candidate from the mainstream of the Democratic Party" who has the key advantage of having previously served as the state's attorney general.
The issues at play in North Carolina are similar to those at a national level—the economy, immigration and abortion, Greene said. In North Carolina, abortion remains legal through about 12 weeks, and Robinson opposes the legality of abortion, previously saying there is "no compromise on abortion."
"Given the recent salience of abortion, and Robinson's history of very conservative statements on the issue, I suspect that abortion will play an especially significant role in the North Carolina campaign," Greene said.
Most other polls since March have similarly found Stein leading Robinson, both of whom won their primaries earlier this month.
A Marist College poll conducted among 1,197 registered from March 11-14 found Stein leading 49-47. A Survey USA/WRAL-TV poll conducted among 598 likely voters from March 3-9 found Stein leading 44-42.
Only one survey since March found Robinson leading the race. The poll, conducted by Cygnal, the John Locke Foundation and Carolina Journal from March 6-7 among 600 likely voters, found Robinson leading with 44 percent to Stein's 39 percent.
Newsweek reached out to the Robinson campaign for comment via email.
While the latest poll from Quinnipiac found troubling news for Robinson, it still found Trump, the presumptive Republican 2024 White House nominee, holding a lead over President Joe Biden in the state. The survey found that 48 percent of respondents plan to back Trump, while 46 percent said they would support Biden.
Independent voters could make the difference in the race, according to the poll. While they broke 49-41 in favor of Trump, Stein held a lead among the same group. Forty-seven percent of independents said they would back Stein, while 38 percent plan to vote for Robinson, according to the poll.
Update 4/11/24, 2:07 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.
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Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
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