Alleged weapons shipments from a North Korean port to Russia have stopped—at least for now—according to new analysis.
Whether due to a hiccup in production, logistics, or some other issue, the pause may mean Russian forces will face a munitions shortage as their invasion of Ukraine enters its third year.
The United States and Ukraine have accused Pyongyang of supplying Moscow with artillery shells and ballistic missiles that end up killing Ukrainians, even if a large percentage are duds.
The Russian vessels identified in the supply runs have stopped showing up at Rason, the North Korean port city where they take on the cargo, as well as at their usual destination ports in Russia's far east, Seoul-based news organization NK Pro reported Thursday, citing satellite imagery from California-based Planet Labs.
Four cargo ships—the Lady R, the Angara, the Maia-1, and the Maria—have made a total of 32 port calls at Rason since the supply runs began in late August, according to NK Pro.
All four of these vessels are subject to U.S. Treasury sanctions for alleged involvement "in the proliferation of military equipment and munitions from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) to Russia."
Since February 12, "no large cargo ships have appeared at the two piers involved in the alleged weapons trade at Rason in available satellite imagery," the news outlet said. North Korean deliveries of containers are likewise absent at the port's export pier.
The crews of these Russian vessels typically go dark, likely to avoid detection, by switching off the automatic identification systems that broadcast their location.
However, high-resolution satellite imagery showed the last of the four to lay anchor at Rason, the Maia-1, in waters east of the Russian city of Vladivostok between February 16 and 21, NK Pro said.
NK Pro said it could not be ruled out that munitions are being transferred via air or land route across the Russia-North Korea border.
Newsweek reached out to Russia's Defense Ministry and North Korea's embassy in China with written requests for comment.
Ukraine said earlier this month that North Korea is a major source of ammunition for the Russian war machine.
"Today, if we take the available statistical data, the Russians have already imported 1.5 million rounds of ammunition from the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea)," said Vadym Skibitsky, the second in command at Ukrainian intelligence service the Main Intelligence Directorate.
Skibitsky said the arrangement was without a doubt a quid pro quo: North Korean munitions to fuel Russia's ground offensive in exchange for Russian technical expertise for Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program.
Yet North Korea's offerings are of mixed quality on the battlefield, the intelligence official said, estimating as much as half of its munitions do not work while the remainder "require either restoration or inspection before use."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
