Pacific Northwest Will Be Next Victim of Increasing Wildfires

A new study has found that the wildfire risk in the Pacific Northwest is set to double by 2035.

A new study published in the journal JGR Biogeosciences used simulations to represent more than 23 million acres of forest across Oregon and Washington. They showed that the area could see double the amount of fires when compared to 30 years ago.

The North Cascades region, the Olympic Mountains, the west of the Oregon Cascades and the Puget lowlands could all see an uptick in fire activity, according to the study. The models were simulated based on how climate change may worsen by 2035.

"The moist, highly productive forests of the Northwest don't get fire as often as other parts of the West, like California or eastern Oregon," Dye said in a summary of the findings. "But fire does naturally occur in the PNW 'Westside' as we call it – the fire regimes are actually quite complex in this region. It can be challenging to assess fire probability in an environment where there isn't a lot of empirical information about the fire history to build models."

Scientists already know that the risk of wildfires is increasing as the climate gets warmer, particularly in the West. California, for example, is the state that suffers from the most wildfires. But more research into the specific regions it could affect is needed.

The fires in the northwest could have a profound knock-on effect on integral systems that produce drinking water, timber and carbon stocks.

There have been some notable wildfires occurring in this region recently, such as the 2020 Labor Day fires. Around 850,000 acres of forests burned in these fires.

Dye notes that it is important to start anticipating that these sorts of fires could become more frequent over the next few decades.

"And what if fires like that were to start happening more frequently in the near future?" Dye said. "What if that once every 200 years became once every 50 years, or once every 25 years as climate change brings hotter and drier conditions to the region?"

Previous studies have shown how wildfires have increased as climate change has worsened, pointing to this as the leading cause of the uptick. According to Drought.gov, there was a 172 percent increase in burned areas between 1971 and 2021. The government body also reports that a further increase in burned forest areas, of between 3 to 52 percent, is expected in coming years.

"Describing the possibilities of how, when and where climate change could affect fire regimes helps bracket everyone's expectations," Dye said. "Particularly important among our findings are new insights into the possibility of shifts towards more frequent and large fires, especially those greater than 40,000 hectares as well as shifts toward more fires burning at the beginning of fall when extreme weather has the potential to increase fire spread."

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