Former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are emerging as early favorites for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination if Donald Trump doesn't run—with one new poll showing them nearly tied if Trump doesn't launch another White House bid.
DeSantis has been touted by many analysts as the front-runner for the GOP's 2024 nomination if Trump doesn't seek another presidential term. Some even view the Florida governor as potentially capable of successfully challenging Trump in the primaries if the former president does run again.
However, in recent weeks Pence has increasingly appeared to be preparing for a presidential run of his own. He has been attending conservative events, stumping for GOP candidates he's endorsed in midterm primaries, and will publish a new memoir, So Help Me God, in November.
Polling results by NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ, published Thursday, showed Pence and DeSantis statistically tied as the favorite for the Republican nomination if Trump isn't in the running. The survey showed a little more than 23 percent of respondents would back the Florida governor, while about 20.5 percent would support the former vice president.
The difference was within the survey's margin of error, which was approximately plus or minus 3 percent. No other potential Republican candidate received double-digit support.
Notably, a majority of poll respondents also said that Trump should not seek another White House term. About 57 percent said they did not want him to run in 2024, compared with just about 35 percent who said he should seek another term.
Previous surveys have generally shown DeSantis substantially ahead of Pence, but those polls have usually included Trump in the matchup. Polling by Politico/Morning Consult carried out from July 15 to 17 showed the Florida governor at 23 percent and Pence at 7 percent. Trump came in far ahead of both of them, at 53 percent.
A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted from July 5 to 7, showed Trump with the support of 49 percent of Republicans, followed by DeSantis in second place at 25 percent. Pence came in fourth in that survey, at 6 percent, with Texas Senator Ted Cruz coming in third, at 7 percent.
Polling by Harvard CAPS and Harris from the end of June showed Trump with 56 percent support for the GOP nomination, followed by distant-second DeSantis at just 16 percent. Pence came in third with just 7 percent.
None of the three prominent Republicans has announced plans to run in 2024. DeSantis has said that he's focusing on his gubernatorial reelection. Trump has repeatedly suggested he will run but has not publicly confirmed his intentions.
How the political situation plays out remains to be seen. Recent polling shows that Trump is still the front-runner for the Republican nomination in 2024 if he chooses to run, with DeSantis and Pence emerging as top rivals. If Trump chooses not to seek another term, it could be a close race between DeSantis and Pence, but the Florida governor currently appears to have the advantage.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Jason Lemon is a Weekend Editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Prior to taking on the editor role, Jason's reporting focused on ... Read more
