More than 70 percent of adults in the Philippines think their government should prioritize "military action" in order to protect their country's rights in the South China Sea, where a standoff with China nears a crisis point, according to a recent poll.
Support for "expanded naval patrols and troop presence" was 72 percent, 7 percentage points more than three months earlier, according to local consulting firm OCTA Research, whose quarterly survey results showed respondents now slightly favor hard power over traditional diplomacy when it comes to the long-running territorial dispute.
The results of OCTA's latest polling, published last week and made available to Newsweek, comes as Beijing attempts to enforce its sovereignty claims over nearly all of the energy-rich waters of the South China Sea, including in what Manila calls the West Philippine Sea, or areas that fall within the Philippines' internationally recognized exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
While most survey participants said the administration of President Ferdinandi Marcos Jr. should prioritize "further asserting the Philippines' territorial rights through military action," 70 percent of respondents to the multiple-choice poll ranked "diplomacy and other peaceful methods" in second place.
The third most popular option, with 66 percent support, was "modernizing and strengthening the Philippine military's capability to protect the country's territories."
Meanwhile, conducting "joint maritime patrol and exercises with ally countries"—as the Philippines has done with the U.S., Australia and others—was fourth on the list at 42 percent.
Appealing for support from other countries or abandoning the dispute entirely was the top choice for 37 and 14 percent of respondents, respectively.
OCTA polled 1,200 adults aged 18 and above in face-to-face interviews from December 10-14. The results had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.
The Marcos administration has pledged to step up military patrols as well as upgrade military installations on disputed features, proposals that have already drawn the Chinese government's ire.
The more assertive stance—a marked departure from his predecessor's—includes openly bolstering security ties with not only Mutual Defense Treaty partner the United States but also other regional powers like Japan and India.
The Philippines' frequent run-ins with China's maritime forces have garnered international attention thanks to the country's decision to publicize unsafe maneuvers, collisions and water cannon attacks—a series of coercive actions that, so far, appear to have fallen short of triggering American obligations to intervene.
"Anything that infringes on China's sovereignty and security, and undermines regional peace and stability—China will never allow it," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Col. Wu Qian said last week of Manila's plans to upgrade Philippine-held features in the Spratly Islands archipelago.
Eduardo Ano, Marcos's national security adviser, said the Philippine government welcomed the findings.
"Consistent with the views of the people, we are prioritizing the modernization of the armed forces and the coast guard with the acquisition of the latest state-of-the-art assets in order to achieve credible defense," Ano said. "We note that the [West Philippine Sea] issue is of great concern to the public, as evidenced by the respondents' strong preference for a robust approach to safeguarding the country's territorial integrity."
"It is essential to recognize the diversity of opinions reflected in the survey, with 70% of respondents expressing the belief that the issue should also be addressed through diplomacy and other peaceful methods," he said.
The Philippine armed forces and the Chinese Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to Newsweek's written requests for comment.
While territories or maritime zones in the South China Sea are contested in some form or another by seven governments—Brunei, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam—Manila's claims are to reefs and fishing grounds within its EEZ, a 200-nautical-mile zone within which a country has a sovereign right to exploit natural resources.
The Philippines' previously launched an arbitral case against China with an international tribunal at The Hague.
The five-judge panel in its 2016 ruling largely sided with the Philippines against China's sweeping territorial claims, citing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. China continues to dismiss the verdict while pressing the Philippines to return to bilateral negotiations.
The Philippines, other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and China have spent two decades trying to negotiate a code of conduct for the sea.
Chinese and Philippine officials met for talks earlier this month in Shanghai with the aim of deescalating tensions. However, Beijing has ruled out the possibility of backing off its claims, which it bases on unspecified "historical rights."
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
