Murders Are Getting Harder to Solve. Here's Why

A lack of respect for police officers and more killings by strangers have been major factors in America's soaring rate of unsolved murders, retired law enforcement officials told Newsweek.

They were reacting to a report released on December 19 by the independent Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ), which shows that the homicide "clearance," or solve rate of 83.7 percent in 1964, has dropped steadily to 50 percent in 2022.

Less than half of murder cases will be solved for 2023 and subsequent years if the pattern continues.

The decline may be the result of better legal protections for the accused, a weakening relationship between the police and the public, more murders being committed by strangers and slower police response rates, the report suggests.

Chris Swecker, a former FBI assistant director, told Newsweek that homicides are on the rise while "law enforcement resources are being cut generally and there is less respect for police officers and detectives."

"That might mean less cooperation from people who might ordinarily beat some information to the investigators," he said.

Swecker, now an attorney in North Carolina, retired from the Bureau in 2006 as assistant director with responsibility for all FBI criminal investigations.

He said that murder clearance rate has gone down while the technology for solving murder cases has greatly improved.

"In the past, homicides have had a high success rate in terms of investigative results. It's interesting to see the decline in solutions at a time when we have very, very sophisticated forensic techniques to use," he said.

"We have DNA databases, forensic genealogy utilizing private DNA electronic evidence of every description from cellphone tracking, security video, internet searches and social media sites. We are in the golden age of forensics which should result in an increased solution rate."

He agreed with the report's findings that an increase in murder by strangers is likely making detection more difficult.

"My opinion is that it's the decrease in resources, decrease in public cooperation and increases in the type of homicides that is stranger on stranger, as opposed to domestic homicides," he said. "Stranger homicides are much harder to solve."

Donald Tubman, a private detective who is retired from the Rochester Police Department in upstate New York, said that a decline in respect for police officers has made it more difficult to solve murder cases.

"Police solvability is directly related to witness cooperation and the culture and habits of young children having a beef is solved by knocking on the door at someone's house and shooting the intended target in the face," Tubman said.

"It's easier to shut up your enemies by just shooting up your house from a stolen Kia. The intimidation is pervasive and 'the code' is not to snitch."

Tubman said there were several other factors involved.

"The culture of drugs has changed and how the younger people behave has caused the children to be less inhibited to steal cars and firearms and they use them for thrills and financial gains," he said.

Tubman said social media is also a factor.

"TikTok can show you how to steal several different models of automobiles and guns are sometimes left in the cars," he added. "The guns and cars have become a currency. Most every night in Rochester there are drive-by shootings where homes are shot up with multiple rounds."

He said Rochester police have "a remarkable clearance rate for homicides," but the Black Lives Matter movement and the prevalence of COVID-19 and the quarantines did not help.

"While some crimes surge, police and the courts are having money withheld," he said. "Respect for the police by the youth and young criminals has caused a number of shootings and attacks on the police that are unprecedented before COVID."

The CCJ report found that Black men were eight times more likely than white males to be murdered in 2020-2021 and black women were four times more likely to be murdered than white females.

Ernesto Lopez, a CCJ research specialist and co-author of the report, told Newsweek that homicide clearance rates have steadily declined since the 1960s.

He reiterated the possible reasons for the trend, adding that: "Other factors, such as increased police response times and declines in public trust in police may also affect initial apprehension and witness cooperation and can lower clearance rates.

"A lower clearance rate does not automatically equate to less police effectiveness, but when factors like low trust result in less cooperation, that is a major problem for our justice system," Lopez said.

Part of the problem may also be that the circumstances surrounding homicides have become less clear over time. The share of homicides with an "unknown" circumstance doubled from 22 percent in 1985 to 43 percent in 2022, the report shows.