China has surpassed the U.S. in popularity over the past year in Southeast Asia, a recent survey found.
If forced to choose between the two strategic rivals, 50.5 percent of respondents said the Association of Southeast Asian States (ASEAN) should align with Beijing versus 49.5 percent who opted for Washington, according to the results published by Singapore's Yusof Ishak Institute.
The 10-nation bloc pursues a middle path between China, its neighbor and largest trade partner, and the U.S., a military and diplomatic counterweight in the region.
China fared worse in last year's edition of the poll, with only 38.9 percent of respondents saying ASEAN should side with the country if neutrality is no longer practical, compared to 61.1 percent who chose the U.S.
Newsweek reached out to the U.S. State Department and Chinese foreign ministry via written requests for comment.
Preferences varied significantly when broken down by country, however.
Since last year China saw its lead widen among those nations reporting a strong preference for it, including Brunei (70.1 percent), Indonesia (73.2 percent), Laos (70.6 percent), and Malaysia (75.1 percent).
In Thailand, preference for China ticked upward to 52.2 percent from 43.1 percent last year.
Respondents in Singapore and Vietnam budged little in their opinions, with 61.5 percent and 79 percent, respectively, in the U.S. camp.
Those from Cambodia and Myanmar also indicated a preference for Washington (55 percent and 57.7 percent, respectively), though by smaller margins than in 2023.
The U.S. is most popular in the Philippines, where 83.3 percent of respondents went with their ally over China (16.7 percent) in the hypothetical choice.
The Philippines shares a Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S., and the partners have moved to strengthen their security partnership over the past year, including by opening up four military sites to U.S. troops.
Washington has also voiced full-throated support for Manila in its territorial feud with Beijing within the Philippine exclusive economic zone.
China is seen as the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia by a strong 59.5-percent majority of respondents, compared to 16.8 percent who said ASEAN and 14.3 percent the U.S.
China is also perceived to have the most political and strategic influence among 64.4 percent, while the percentage saying this about the U.S. dropped to 25.8 percent from 31.9 percent last year.
But China lagged behind when it came to perceived trustworthiness.
Overall, just a quarter of Southeast Asian respondents said they felt "confident" or "very confident" Beijing would "do the right thing to contribute to global peace, security, prosperity, and governance."
Just over 42 percent said they were "confident" or "very confident" that the U.S. would do the same.
Meanwhile, of the 50 percent who expressed little or no confidence in China, 45.5 percent said they worried China would use its economic and military might to threaten their nation's sovereignty and interests.
In addition to the Philippines, China's sweeping territorial claims overlap with four other ASEAN members: Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei.
The survey was conducted from January 3 to February 23. The 1,994 valid responses were obtained from people falling into five categories: academia, think-tankers or researchers; representatives of the private sector representatives; civil society, NGO or media representatives; government officials; and employees of regional or international organizations.
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About the writer
Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ... Read more
