North Korea Watchers Issue Ominous 2024 Warning

Seoul-based news organization NK Pro on Wednesday released a list of predictions for this year amid fraying stability between nuclear-armed North Korea and its U.S.-allied neighbor.

The forecast spans topics from North Korean ballistic missiles to Russian involvement in the reclusive nation's burgeoning nuclear weapons program.

The report follows on the heels of the North's artillery drills on January 5 that prompted evacuation warnings on two South Korean islands in the Yellow Sea. The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains tense, with the potential to threaten both regional and global security.

Last year, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un's regime made surprising international moves, including the closure of embassies in Uganda, Angola, Hong Kong, and Spain. Kim's visit to Russia to see President Vladimir Putin, apparently his first international trip in years, also made headlines.

South Korea's partial withdrawal from a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, triggered by North Korea's first successful launch of a spy satellite, and Pyongyang's subsequent total withdrawal from the agreement, set the stage for heightened military tensions this year. The new report predicts an increase in activity along the demilitarized zone separating the two countries, potentially leading to a violent clash.

One scenario could see the North sending drones into its neighbor's airspace, leading the South to scramble aircraft in response and the situation potentially spiraling out of control.

In addition, with the abandonment of the 2018 military agreement, that had established a de facto maritime buffer zone, North Korea may deploy warships into contested waters.

Such a move would heighten the risk of confrontation. During a visit to military forces near the demilitarized zone in December, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol emphasized a proactive approach, instructing troops to "act first, report later."

The report suggests that North Korea might exploit the November 2024 U.S. presidential election to test the new American leader's willingness to become involved on the Korean Peninsula.

A bold move by North Korea, such as seizing a border island in the Yellow Sea and alerting tactical nuclear units, could spark a reprisal from the South and draw Washington into a broader conflict under its Mutual Defense Treaty with Seoul.

The article anticipates North Korea's continued enhancement and diversification of its nuclear arsenal, potentially developing rockets capable of carrying multiple warheads. This would pose a threat not only to South Korea and nearby Japan but also to the U.S.

Last month North Korea test-fired the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, touted as being capable of reaching the continental U.S. Also in December, Kim vowed to target the U.S. with nuclear warheads in response to perceived nuclear provocation—without elaborating further on what he would consider provocative behavior.

The report also highlights North Korea's deepening collaboration with Russia, having provided ballistic missiles and other weapons to aid Moscow in its conflict with Ukraine.

In return, Russia may offer technical and fuel management expertise to North Korea's nuclear program.

Meanwhile, if South Korea begins selling arms directly to Ukraine, rather than to countries already arming the besieged country, Russia might respond by providing North Korea with a more powerful nuclear reactor, the report said.

Moscow-Pyongyang collaboration could extend to bolstering North Korea's cybersecurity defenses, the authors wrote.

With Kim having vowed to launch additional surveillance satellites, these could be equipped with jamming technology with the potential to disrupt communication and reconnaissance capabilities by targeting satellites belonging to its neighbor or the U.S., the report said.