Russian President Vladimir Putin could oversee a de facto victory in Ukraine this year, a leading figure in the United States' intelligence community has said.
CIA Director William Burns' stark warning came on Thursday as U.S. lawmakers looked set to vote on a long-stalled $61 billion Ukraine aid package this weekend.
That military assistance would boost Ukraine "both practically and psychologically" and show Ukraine is capable of "holding their own through 2024 and puncture Putin's arrogant view that time is on his side," Burns said.
Without it, he said "the picture is a lot more dire."
"I think there is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could lose on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put Putin in a position where he could essentially dictate the terms of a political settlement," Burns said.
The Context
The U.S. has approved about $75 billion in aid to Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, including humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to German research institute the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Joe Biden's White House last approved military aid to Ukraine on December 27, 2023, in a $250 million package that included air defense and anti-tank weapons.
But more military funding for Ukraine requires fresh approval from Congress.
A $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and other U.S. allies, was approved by the Senate in February, but it stalled in the House, where hardline conservative Republicans oppose the Ukraine bill without stronger U.S. border legislation and some Democrats oppose sending military aid to Israel amid its campaign in Gaza.
On Thursday, however, House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, announced his plan to break the aid packages into separate bills, likely giving them a greater chance of success.
The new Ukraine bill requires other U.S. allies commit to certain spending levels, and a repayment deal from Ukraine—a caveat that Republican presumptive presidential nominee Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded.
What We Know
A counteroffensive last summer by Ukraine failed to regain as much territory as Kyiv hoped, with advances blocked by Russian minefields.
In recent months, Ukrainian generals have reported a shortage of troops and ammunition on the frontlines while Russia has increasingly used satellite-guided gliding bombs to hit Ukrainian troops from a safe distance.
Russian forces have since claimed strategic gains in an offensive, which war analysts predict could be be upped this summer as muddy fields dry out.
Views
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on April 7 that his country "will lose the war" if Congress does not approve military aid.
"It's important to specifically address the Congress: if the Congress doesn't help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war," he told a video meeting of the Ukrainian fund-raising group UNITED24. "If Ukraine loses this war, other countries will be attacked. This is a fact."
On Thursday, Johnson signaled he agreed: "I think that Vladimir Putin would continue marching through Europe if he were allowed. I think he might go to the Balkans next. I think he might have a showdown with Poland or one of our NATO allies.
"To put it bluntly I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys."
Russia says fresh U.S. military aid will not change Ukraine's "unfavorable" situation on the frontline. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday the aid would only help the U.S. defense industry and leave Ukraine in debt.
What's Next?
The House is expected to vote on the Ukraine bill this Saturday.
Uncommon Knowledge
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