Putin Makes Surprising Comparison After Wagner Mutiny

Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to compare himself to a famous Russian figure following a shocking challenge by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group to his direct authority.

The Wagner mercenary group leader on Friday accused the Russian military of attacking his positions in Ukraine with missiles as the war reached the 16-month mark, and he declared war on the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Prigozhin's whereabouts remain unknown after his fighters took control of military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and proceeded toward Moscow before agreeing to stand down as part of a deal that would allow him to successfully seek refuge in Belarus without criminal prosecution. He could still face legal jeopardy, according to Russia's Kommersant newspaper. Citing unnamed sources, the Federal Security Service (FSB) is investigating Prigozhin.

Putin referred to the incident as "treason," adding that "any internal revolt is a deadly threat to our statehood and our nation."

"A blow like this was dealt to Russia in 1917, when the country was fighting in World War I," Putin said in a national address on Saturday. "But the victory was stolen from it: intrigues, squabbles and politicking behind the backs of the army and the nation turned into the greatest turmoil, the destruction of the army and the collapse of the state, and the loss of vast territories, ultimately leading to the tragedy of the civil war."

Prigozhin has openly expressed resentment regarding a continued shortage of ammunition and combat gear provided by the Russian military while Wagner has been knee-deep in battles in cities like Bakhmut.

Michael McFaul, a political science professor at Stanford University and former U.S. ambassador to Russia under President Barack Obama, expressed confusion about Putin's statement.

"Such an odd analogy that casts him as Nicholas II, Prigozhin as [Vladimir] Lenin, and Russian armed forces quitting the war in the West," McFaul tweeted Monday. "Of course, Prigozhin is more like [Lavr] Kornilov than Lenin."

The Russian Revolution of 1917 began with the implementation of the new Russian parliament, the State Duma, and the abdication of Czar Nicholas II. Months later, far-left Bolsheviks led by Vladimir Lenin seized government buildings and stormed the Winter Palace, formerly the seat of the new government in Russia's then-capital Petrograd (now St. Petersburg).

Kornilov was a Russian military intelligence officer who later became commander of the anti-Bolshevik Volunteer "White" Army in the south of Russia. He was killed in fighting in 1918.

The Bolshevik Revolution, referred to as the "Great October Socialist Revolution," led to the moving of the capital from St. Petersburg to Moscow. The Lenin-led revolt is viewed as the first successful Marxist coup in history.

Newsweek reached out to McFaul via email for comment.

Brian Taylor, a political science professor and Russian expert at Syracuse University, told Newsweek that Putin's comparison to World War I "really isn't doing him any favors."

"The language is very reminiscent of World War I, this we-were-stabbed-in-the-back kind of thing," Taylor said. "But I think it reflects this long-held view that any disorder internally is going to be used by Russia's external enemies to weaken and dismember Russia.

"So, it's all part of a very common narrative for him: 'We have to be strong at home, and only if we're strong at home can we be strong abroad. And that requires unity and anyone who goes against the state is a traitor.'"

Putin formerly used such language for political enemies and those who expressed democratic opposition, Taylor noted, referring to individuals like the imprisoned Alexei Navalny. Now, Prigozhin—someone whom Putin elevated to a position of power and responsibility—is feeling his wrath.

"[Prigozhin] is articulating a series of grievances that ultimately strike at Putin and the system he's created itself, even though he's someone who's come from within the inner circle in some respects," Taylor said. So, it's a very strange analogy but I think reflects Putin's worldview about where Russia is threatened and what it might mean for Russia if his hold on power was in any way challenged."

Mikhail Troitskiy, professor of practice at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek that Prigozhin "clearly made himself look weak" and that his group's task was too difficult to accomplish short of mass and open defection of members of the Russian armed forces or security services.

"It is clear that a coup by mercenaries who lack political goals or attractive slogans does not work in today's Russia," Troitskiy said. "That is the main difference so far from the mutinies that happened in 1917 that involved regular Russian troops unwilling to deploy to the World War I frontlines or returning disenfranchised from the battlefield.

"Mercenaries who generally did not want to engage regular troops or law enforcement formations in the streets of Moscow proved unable to muster sufficient momentum, although they did have a shot if they chose to continue their march on the capital."

He said that Putin and his closest associates came out looking "agile and creative" in their response to Prigozhin's threats because they demonstrated the ability to quickly deal with and subdue a serious challenge.

"Putin may have a problem, though, if the Prigozhin mutiny was abetted by some elements in the Russian government and/or the military," Troitskiy added. "Seeking those elements out at the time of a Ukrainian counteroffensive may prove divisive, but putting up with dissent means to opening the door to another attempt at Putin's power and possibly life as well.

"Professional military mutineers, if they are to stage another coup, will not try marching on Moscow anymore; they will have to start from within Moscow. This threat is clearly present because many players have learned their lessons from the abortive Prigozhin mutiny."

"Prigozhin is only part of the [Wagner] group and part of the plan," Oleksiy Danilov, the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said in a Facebook post, adding that Prigozhin's rebellion attempt was "the tip of the iceberg of the destabilization process."

Putin spoke Monday, making no reference to the weekend's events during comments made at the International Youth Industrial Forum. He told attendees how building up Russia's competitive abilities in domestic and global markets is key to strengthening "the country's security, economic and technological sovereignty."

Update 6/26/23, 12:01 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comment from Brian Taylor.