Is Putin's Stranglehold on Wheat Ruining Russia's Ambitions in Africa?

At the Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg, Guinea diplomat Lama Jacque Sevoba said his shirt displaying multiple faces of Vladimir Putin showed his "love" for the Russian president. Among his continent's representatives, he was in the minority.

Putin had hoped that the meeting in his home city would have cemented ties between Moscow and Africa, especially as he often presents his full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a move away from the Western-led world order towards one more inclusive of the Global South.

But this vision may have gone south with only 17 African heads of state out of 54 attending, fewer than half that the 43 leaders who attended the first Russia-Africa summit in 2019. Absentees included Nigeria's Bola Tinubu, Kenya's William Ruto, Félix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Rwanda's Paul Kagame.

A key factor behind Putin looking like a party host light on guests was his decision to pull out of the Black Sea Grain deal and then bomb Ukrainian ports, destroying thousands of tons of food, much of which Africa depends on.

The deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey last year allowed the safe passage of agricultural products from Ukraine's ports which are the focal point of the war.

Kenya said it was a "stab" in the back while Egypt, traditionally a Moscow ally, also condemned the move. African Union Commission Chair Moussa Faki Mahamat called for the revival of the grain deal.

Putin told African leaders at Thursday's plenary session, six countries would get up to 50,000 tons of grain free of charge.

"Every time there's a shock, there's a price increase in grain which is disastrous," Samuel Ramani, author of Russia in Africa, told Newsweek. "People are starving as a result of this, so it's not going to be a very easy sell."

Ramani said for Russia to supply grain to Africa directly, it would need the support of Qatar and Turkey, neither of whom has committed to such a plan. "It's going to be hard to see how these alternatives are going to be very operational in the short term."

Among Putin's other reassurances were the military and technical agreements Moscow had with 40 countries, a claim Russia had written off $23 billion of debt in the last year, and an insistence it would reliably supply agricultural products.

But the reputation of Russia's project in Africa appears to have been tarnished. "Russia's got very little to offer African countries economically," said Ramani, associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

"Russian arms have proven themselves to be less than effective in the Ukraine war and also Western sanctions are coming with those come with a big risk." Coupled with the exit from the Black Sea Grain deal, "the loss of Russian influence in Africa is due to many factors."

Oleksandra Matviichuk, head of the Kyiv-based Center for Civil Liberties, last year's joint Nobel Peace Prize winner, said African countries should examine the intent of their partners and question whether it was wise "to be associated with accused war criminals and violators of rule-based order."

Putin's offer of free grain was "done solely to achieve political influence on countries across Africa, and, as a result, to get the votes Russia needs in the UN," she told Newsweek in a statement.

African Peace Plan for Ukraine

Some African leaders pressed Putin to accept a peace plan revealed last month to defuse the war in Ukraine and its consequent trade disruptions. These include a negotiated settlement, pulling back Russian troops, and removing Moscow's nuclear weapons from Belarus.

But the Institute for the Study of War think tank said on Friday that the Kremlin has shown little interest in the plan, despite its insistence it was under consideration.

The think tank said that the Kremlin wants to "feign interest" in the deal so as to increase its engagement with Africa and present itself as "a more attractive ally than the collective West."

The countries seeking an end to Putin's invasion of Ukraine and the knock-on effects on food prices for their citizens contrast with the leaders of Mali and the Central African Republic, who expressed gratitude to Putin at the summit.

The presence of Russia's Wagner forces in those countries gives the Kremlin an informal security footprint and access to valuable natural resources, suggesting that whatever pressure the continent exerts on Putin, it will not be unanimous.

"Africa is divided when it comes to overtly supporting Russia in the war with Ukraine," said Liesl Louw-Vaudran, senior adviser from the International Crisis Group. "Consistently countries, especially the African Union, want to stay nonaligned, don't want to be dictated to and don't want to take sides."

"Many African leaders didn't want to be seen to be fighting with Russia," Louw-Vaudran told Newsweek, "it's too risky for them—economically and diplomatically."