Putin's G20 Speech: Five Things to Expect

Russian President Vladimir Putin will give a video address to G20 leaders, the Kremlin has announced, in an address on the world stage that will present a "conundrum" for the West, a former British diplomat has told Newsweek.

The G20 did not mention Putin's participation in its press release on November 18, which said that the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, would chair Wednesday's virtual G20 leaders' summit.

But the Kremlin's surprise announcement comes more than two months after it said Putin's "busy schedule" meant he could not attend in person the New Delhi summit in September, sending instead his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

G20 members include the United States, U.K. and European Union, which have strongly supported Ukraine in its war with Russia. John Foreman, a former British defense attache to Moscow, said Western G20 leaders would face a "conundrum" about whether they took part in the meeting or snubbed Putin's speech.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Monday that for Putin, "the agenda is clear—the current situation is very, very turbulent," state news agencies reported, "of course, the position of the Russian Federation will be presented, which is quite well known, consistent, and balanced." But what issues might he touch on?

The West's 'colonial rule'

If his last appearances on the global stage are anything to go by, the Russian president is likely to use the opportunity to rail at the West.

On October 5, Putin told a meeting of the Russian think tank, the Valdai Discussion Club, that "Western influence over the world is a giant Ponzi scheme" and that it's time "to drop this thinking, from the era of colonial rule."

Since sanctions were imposed against Russia following the start of Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has divided the world into "friendly" and "unfriendly" countries, offering the former favorable trade terms for its exports, most importantly oil and gas, which reinforce Moscow's capacity to sustain the war.

The Global South

Leon Hartwell, senior associate at the London School of Economics think tank, LSE IDEAS, said Putin's speech on Wednesday will likely be geared towards an international audience, with a particular focus on countries from the Global South.

"Putin's key messages are likely to be framed around three roles—the victim, the perpetrator, and the rescuer," said Hartwell.

This narrative will see Russia and the Global South "cast as victims, Ukrainians backed by NATO as the perpetrators, and Russia, supported by China, as the rescuer poised to aid the victims against the perpetrators," said Hartwell.

Neutral Stance on Ukraine

China has maintained an officially neutral stance on Putin's war and its leader Xi Jinping and Putin have hailed their friendship as they visited each other's capitals this year. Last month in Beijing, the leaders described each other as "dear" friends, and depicted themselves as building a "fairer, multipolar world."

Hartwell said that the primary objective for Putin's speech "will be securing greater backing for Russia's actions in Ukraine or, at the very least, leaving world leaders with the impression that maintaining a neutral stance is preferable."

"This 'neutrality' conveniently allows Russia to sustain and expand energy exports to nations like India, China, and Turkey, thereby reinforcing its capacity to sustain the war in Ukraine."

The G20 summit's host, India, has benefited from cheap energy exports from Russia amid a deepening of ties with Moscow since the start of its invasion of Ukraine.

Climate

The Kremlin said on its website Putin would use his G20 address to discuss, "the global economy, the climate agenda, digitalization issues and other topics."

As one of the world's biggest producers of oil and gas, Russia's climate doctrine, first introduced in 2009, is to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 and to reduce emissions of planet-warming gases by 30 percent from 1990 levels by 2030.

Last month Putin signed an updated version of the doctrine which dropped language directly linking the burning of fossil fuels to greenhouse gas emissions.

Hartwell said, "while Putin may touch upon additional topics such as climate change, food security, and energy security, relevant to the G20 summit," his "underlying objective is to legitimize support for Russia and its allies while satanizing the West."

The G20

A year after Ukraine called for Russia to be expelled from the G20, Putin may use his speech to take aim at the group of major economies.

Putin told the Valdai Forum in October that the G20 was created in 1999 as a platform for discussing "economic rather than political issues" and that its politicization "is simply a sure path to its self-liquidation."

Foreman, the former British defense attaché to Moscow, said that Putin's speech would "allow him to remind leaders that Russia still matters and also to attempt to drive a further wedge between the West and other G20 members."

"I think this is especially true against the events in Israel and Gaza, with some nations from the Global South expressing concern about Western support of Israel," he told Newsweek.

Russian state TV presenter Pavel Zarubin said on his Telegram channel that Wednesday's address would be the "first event in a long time" which included both Putin and Western leaders but it could pose some diplomatic difficulties.

"Putin's attendance would present a conundrum to Western G20 leaders, whether to participate in the virtual summit or to snub him," said Foreman.

"The U.S. has a good excuse, given Thanksgiving is this week, but others may choose to delegate to foreign ministers or officials when Putin speaks. That said, this event will be a protocol one with the real business done back in September."

Foreman added that for G20 leaders, it is "not catastrophic to skip it although some smoothing of any injured Indian feelings would be required."